Team Newberry Mortgage Loan Officers
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Two Newberrys, no waiting for help with your home finance needs! Travis is a retired U.S. Marine having served for 23 years. Marine Corp Reservist.
His daughter Cosette served her time as a U.S. Poor Frances not only married a Marine but birthed one too! Our family has made ten different moves together. Believe us, we know how it feels to find a new home and finance it. We will make this process as stress-free as we can. With more than 21 years combined experience in home financing, we know how to create an ideal mortgage solution for borrowe
![](https://img4.findglocal.com/112/255/1043437921122551.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฏ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐น๐ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower on the week, but not by much, and were basically unchanged throughout the week before heading into the Labor Day holiday.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐น๐ฒ โ ๏ธ
Mortgage rates will react to jobs data this week, and any signs that the labor market is weakening will help mortgage rates move lower. However, although it is unlikely to happen this way, if markets were to get any surprises showing the labor market is not as weak as anticipated it could see rates react negatively and move higher on the week.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Labor market data: Wednesday brings the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS), and on Thursday we will see unemployment claims and the ADP private payroll report. But it is Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs data that will cause the most movement in mortgage rates this week.
- Fed rate cuts: Markets will be looking for the jobs data to support the speculation that the Fed will need to start cutting its policy rate at this month's Fed meeting. If the data shows the labor market is weakening worse than expected, speculation of a bigger Fed rate cut could help mortgage rates.
![](https://img3.findglocal.com/817/794/1039550608177949.jpg)
โ ๏ธ Whether you're getting a mortgage to buy a home or to refinance, these are 4 things you should NOT do...
โ Make any large purchases like a new car or furniture for your new home
Even if you don't have to pay any interest or make any payments for awhile, new purchases come with new debt that will have to be factored in and can affect qualifying for your loan.
โ Deposit cash into your bank account
All money into and out of your accounts has be be accounted for during the mortgage process, even if not being used for the mortgage or a down payment. Talk with me about how to document unexpected or large deposits, especially cash deposits.
โ Quit or change jobs.
Now isn't the time to make a move, even for a better opportunity... at least not without talking to me first about how it can impact your loan.
โ Open (or even close) credit accounts
Don't take that new store card to save 10% on your purchase, don't pay off old debts or collections, and don't close or pay off any other accounts. Some of these actions can have unexpected consequences to your credit score, so be sure to talk with me first.
โ
Remember, I'm always here to help. If any of these situations comes up and you're thinking of buying or refinancing soon, be sure to reach out to me for guidance.
![](https://img3.findglocal.com/843/223/1037007728432237.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐ด๐๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ฒ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐น๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower for the week, although most media sources are still behind the curve and some of the headlines about how low rates are at have been overblown. Rates got a boost on Friday from Fed Chair Powell's comments that "the time has come for policy to adjust".
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฝ ๐ฎ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Rates are not likely to make any big moves this week, but could continue to creep lower, usually improving the lender rebate (credit you get towards closing costs or the cost to buy a rate down using points) rather than seeing actual rates move lower.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Economic data: Thursday brings the final 2nd quarter GDP data, and Friday brings the PCE inflation data, which is the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation. Markets didn't react much to the CPI inflation data earlier in the month, which could signal we won't see a big reaction to Friday's data.
- Labor Day: Markets are closed Monday September 2nd, so we could see some conservative rates on Friday this week ahead of the holiday weekend.
- Fed rate cuts: Mortgage rates could react favorably if markets speculate larger Fed rate cuts coming at the September meeting.
![](https://img4.findglocal.com/208/797/1033783712087972.jpg)
๐ค ๐ฆ๐ต๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ป๐๐ถ๐น ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ฑ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ ๐๐ผ ๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ฎ ๐ต๐ผ๐๐๐ฒ?
With mortgage rates starting to fall, I am hearing that question a lot these days, and the answer may surprise you.
๐ก๐ผ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ ๐ฎ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ ๐ด๐ผ๐ผ๐ฑ ๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ฎ ๐ต๐ผ๐๐๐ฒ, and here are a few reasons why...
๐ You're more likely to get your offer accepted with less competition...
๐ Sellers are a bit more likely to help pay closing costs or give other concessions...
๐ Home prices have settled, but are likely to go up again when rates drop...
๐ Ask me for the other reasons!
๐ฆ๐ผ ๐ถ๐ณ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ธ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฏ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ ๐ต๐ผ๐บ๐ฒ, ๐ฏ๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐'๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ฑ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ, ๐น๐ฒ๐'๐ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ธ. ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ต๐ฒ๐น๐ฝ.
![](https://img4.findglocal.com/233/022/1031361152330228.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐ด๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ต, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐น๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Last week saw rates improve marginally, but not by much despite data showing the lowest inflation since spring 2021.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ ๐
Rates are not likely to move much this week, but any moves are more likely to happen near the end of the week. Markets have shifted to expectations of only a quarter point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, after speculating that the weak labor market data earlier this month would spur a half point cut or more. Mortgage rates move ahead of actual Fed cuts, and improved earlier this month on the speculation of coming cuts.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Economic data: There is very little data this week that will affect mortgage rates, basically only an early report on Thursday.
- Fed minutes: The minutes from the Fed's last meeting come out on Wednesday, although we shouldn't see rates react much to the news.
- Powell speech: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking from the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday morning, and markets will be listening for signals of future Fed rate cuts. It is unlikely that Powell tips his hand much, and will likely signal Fed rate cuts are coming but will be data dependent.
![](https://img5.findglocal.com/287/727/1025890662877277.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐ด๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ฎ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ต๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Unfortunately our forecast for last week was correct, rates moved higher for the week after dropping more than expected when markets overreacted to the previous week's weak jobs data. The good news was that the moves higher weren't large and rates are still better than in July.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐
After moving higher last week, rates could settle down and even improve a little bit if this week's inflation data shows inflation is still cooling, because it would support the Fed cutting policy rates at the September meeting. Mortgage rates will move lower in anticipation of future Fed rate cuts.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Inflation data: Wholesale inflation data on Tuesday will have some effect on rates this week, but it is Wednesday's consumer inflation data that will cause the biggest moves. Consumer inflation is expected to be slightly higher month-to-month than last month's readings, but should still be showing year-over-year inflation at a slower pace which would help mortgage rates move at least slightly lower.
- Fed rate cuts: Markets are now pricing in smaller policy rate cuts to start in September, after overreacting the previous week.
![](https://img5.findglocal.com/671/647/1020832046716472.jpg)
With all the talk of what's happening with mortgage rates, remember I'm here as your local Mortgage Professional to answer questions or get you a rate quote. ๐
![](https://img3.findglocal.com/339/704/1020693013397042.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐ด๐๐๐ ๐ฑ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐
Mortgage rates improved to the best levels seen in months last week. On Wednesday we saw improvement after the Fed left its policy rate unchanged, but opened the door to rate cuts starting at the next meeting in September. On Friday labor market data showed a jump in unemployment and much fewer new jobs created than was expected, which all but guaranteed the Fed will start cutting at the next meeting.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐น๐ถ๐ธ๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐น๐ฒ โ ๏ธ
This week will likely see mortgage rates pull back after dropping more than was expected last week. Although there is not a lot of economic data this week, markets have shown a major overreaction to last week's data. Stocks have plummeted, and traders now believe the Fed will be forced to make bigger and more frequent rate cuts to save the economy from a deep recession. Mortgage rates have moved lower too quickly, which often is followed by a rebound and moves higher.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Market volatility: Lenders will struggle to maintain stability with mortgage rates this week as markets whipsaw.
- Fed cuts: Markets now pricing in large Fed rate cuts to come, much larger than were considered only a week ago.
![](https://img4.findglocal.com/391/936/1015469783919365.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐น๐ ๐ฎ๐ต, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐น๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Mortgage rates ended the week just slightly better after the Fed's favored gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure price index, came out showing inflation continues to move lower, opening the door for rate cuts.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐น๐ถ๐ธ๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐
This week is expected to be good for mortgage rates, with the Fed unlikely to cut its policy rate yet but more likely to signal cuts could start at the next meeting. There is also a lot of labor market data this week that could support upcoming Fed rate cuts, and could help mortgage rates improve this week.
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Labor market data: The week is full of data, but the two most important reports for mortgage rates are the job opening and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, and the BLS jobs data and unemployment number on Friday.
- The Fed: The two-day Fed meeting concludes on Wednesday at 2pm ET, where the Fed is likely to leave rates unchanged but signal cuts could be coming. Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET is when markets are likely to react most, setting up possible rate reprices Wednesday afternoon and better rates on Thursday morning when lenders set rates.
![](https://img3.findglocal.com/444/143/1010249044441439.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐น๐ ๐ฎ๐ฎ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐น๐ ๐ต๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Mortgage rates actually improved to start the week, before moving slightly higher on Friday. The moves may have been because of the huge Microsoft outage which affected trading, or could have just been due to a slight pullback in expectations for three Fed policy rate cuts by year's end. Either way, the moves were small.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐น๐ถ๐ธ๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ ๐
Despite the magnitude of President Biden announcing he will not run for reelection, his announcement has no real effect on mortgage rates. Although politics does play a role in markets and rates, mortgage rates continue to be most heavily influenced by the Fed and the possibility of coming rate cuts.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- PCE inflation data: Coming on Friday, this is the Fed's favored gauge of inflation and is likely to show that inflation moved lower in June (like the CPI inflation report did). Mortgage rates may end the week slightly improved if that is the case.
- Expectations of Fed rate cuts: Markets currently expecting cuts to start in September (not the upcoming July meeting) and for there to be three cuts this year, helping mortgage rates remain steady unless that outlook changes.
![](https://img4.findglocal.com/496/500/1005013354965008.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐น๐ ๐ญ๐ฑ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Mortgage rates improved as inflation data last week came in even better than expected, showing dropping inflation and supporting the belief that the Fed will cut policy rates up to three times this year starting at September's Fed meeting.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐น๐ ๐
Rates are now at some of the lowest levels of the year, but aren't likely to move much lower this week. Mortgage rates are heavily influenced by inflation, the labor market, and forecasts of when and how much the Fed will cut policy rates. With this month's big labor and inflation reports behind us, we won't likely see mortgage rates make any big moves this week.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- The Fed: Fed officials are out in force this week speaking, the last week they can do so before the blackout period enforced ahead of every Fed meeting. Despite this month's data, Fed officials are likely to signal support for keeping policy rates unchanged further into the year. Because markets don't expect the Fed will be able to avoid cutting rates as soon as September, the Fed speeches are unlikely to hurt or help mortgage rates.
- Economic data: Not a lot of data this week that will affect rates.
![](https://img4.findglocal.com/523/828/1002280615238282.jpg)
๐ฅ ๐๐ฒ๐'๐ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐! ๐
If you've been watching mortgage rates because...
โ
You're thinking of buying a home...
โ
Consolidating some debt...
โ
Any other reason...
I've got good news! ๐
Text me, DM me, call me, whatever you like... just be sure we talk soon before we miss this chance!
![](https://img4.findglocal.com/547/552/999908165475527.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐น๐ ๐ด, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Rates were as volatile last week as expected, moving higher early in the week before falling after the Independence Day holiday. Despite more new jobs created than expected for last month, most of the week's jobs data pointed to a softening labor market, supporting the idea that the Fed could start cutting rates in September.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ฒ, ๐ฏ๐๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ธ โ ๏ธ
Rates are expected to get at least a little bit better this week as inflation data shows inflation continues to move lower. However, there is risk that if we get a surprise increase in inflation it would push rates higher on the week.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- The Fed: Fed Chair Powell will testify on the economy in front of Congress this week, as he does twice a year. If his comments lead markets to believe the Fed is likely to cut rates this year, it will help hold rates at these levels or improve.
- Inflation data: Consumer inflation data comes out Thursday and will have the biggest effect on rates this week, with wholesale inflation data coming out on Friday. If inflation continues to show signs of cooling, that will support Fed rate cuts later this year and help mortgage rates.
![](https://img4.findglocal.com/931/886/994808129318864.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐น๐ ๐ญ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ต๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Rates moved slightly higher to end the week, despite a positive reaction to Friday's inflation data. Most lenders started off Friday with better rates but were forced to reissue new rate sheets through the afternoon as mortgage bonds lost ground in month's end trading. Mortgage bonds are the basis that lenders use when setting mortgage rates.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐น๐ถ๐ธ๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐น๐ฒ โ ๏ธ
Mortgage rates are likely to move this week, but whether that move is higher or lower will depend on the labor market data. Markets will close early on Wednesday and be closed on Thursday for the holiday, as will most mortgage lenders. Friday has the most potential to see rates move.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Economic data: There will be a handful of reports throughout the week that will affect mortgage rates.
- Jobs data: Tuesday brings labor market data on job openings and layoffs, while Friday brings the BLS jobs report showing unemployment, wages, and new jobs created in June.
- Independence Day: Since the 4th falls on a Thursday, many traders will take an extended weekend, and the resulting decrease in trading volume adds to the potential volatility for rates this week.
![](https://img5.findglocal.com/983/812/989615489838128.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐ป๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ฐ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐
Rates were basically unchanged last week, not only for the week but with very little movement day-to-day. Overall it was a very quiet week for rates.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐น๐ ๐
Mortgage rates shouldn't move much this week, but could improve a little bit if this week's inflation data comes in as expected. Keep in mind though that we could see a lot more volatility next week with labor data and the Independence Day holiday.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Economic data: There's really not a lot happening this week although Thursday will bring the final GDP numbers for the first quarter. It isn't likely this data has a big effect on mortgage rates though.
- Inflation data: Friday will bring the Fed's favored inflation gauge, which is expected to show the slowest inflation since late last year and open the door to possible Fed rate cuts later this year.
- The Fed: Mortgage rates will remain near the current levels as long as markets believe the Fed will cut rates later this year. Markets are currently expecting the Fed to cut rates starting in September and to cut rates twice by the end of the year. If markets believe the economic and labor market data would require the Fed to cut rates sooner or more aggressively, that would help mortgage rates improve. That is why next week's labor market data will be important to mortgage rates.
![](https://img5.findglocal.com/370/631/984266953706315.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐ป๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ณ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐
Rates improved last week when data showed both wholesale and consumer inflation is once again moving lower. The Fed left its policy rate unchanged last week and Fed Chair Powell signaled the Fed isn't likely to make any moves at the next meeting in July, with Fed officials projecting between 1-2 cuts this year.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐ต๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
While it was great to see rates move lower last week, we could be seeing rates capped out for the near term, meaning we aren't likely to see them move lower this week and instead are likely to see them get slightly worse. For those in process and closing soon, consider discussing locking with your mortgage pro. Those not yet under contract or in process though shouldn't worry much, rates are not likely to move that much higher.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Juneteenth holiday: Markets will be closed in observance of Juneteenth on Wednesday, and mortgage rates won't move that day.
- Economic data: Only a couple reports this week to watch, retail sales on Tuesday and PMI data on Friday. If the data reflects economic weakness we could see rates improve just slightly, but stronger data would pressure rates higher on the week.
![](https://img3.findglocal.com/420/499/979280164204994.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐ป๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ฌ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฎ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐
Rates improved early in the week as markets grew optimistic that the Fed was likely to cut its policy rate at least a couple of times by the end of the year. However, rates jumped higher on Friday when the BLS jobs data showed a lot more jobs were created than what had been forecast, ending the week just slightly better than the previous week.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐น๐ฒ โ ๏ธ
Rates this week will definitely move higher or lower, we just don't know which way they will go. Rates should start the week off calm, but Wednesday brings inflation data and the Fed meeting. Depending on how the data comes out and what the Fed says, we could see rates start to improve again or they could move quite a bit higher. There is a lot of risk this week.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Inflation data: The CPI inflation report comes out Wednesday morning before mortgage rates are released and will affect rates that day.
- Fed meeting and press conference: The Fed is unlikely to cut or hike rates at this month's meeting, however will release its quarterly forecast for rates. Fed Chair Powell's press conference is also likely to cause rates to move Wednesday afternoon.
![](https://img5.findglocal.com/802/826/974380828028261.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐ป๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ฏ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐น๐ฒ โ ๏ธ
Last week saw mortgage rates move quite a bit higher by midweek, only to recover and end the week almost unchanged. Rates rose as consumer confidence readings unexpectedly came in higher on Tuesday, but were helped by slightly better than expected inflation data on Friday.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ฒ, ๐ฏ๐๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ธ ๐
Mortgage rates are sure to move this week, and hopefully improve, but it will depend on the data. This week brings lots of jobs data, and any signs of a softening labor market will help mortgage rates improve ahead of next week's Fed meeting and inflation data. However, if the labor market data shows strength instead of the expected weakness, we could see mortgage rates move higher.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Jobs data: This week brings the job opening and labor turnover survey on Tuesday, the ADP private payroll report on Wednesday, jobless claims on Thursday, and the report that will have the most impact on mortgage rates on Friday, the BLS jobs report.
- Other economic data: There are a few other reports this week that will give insight into whether the economy is slowing down or not, which could help mortgage rates this week.
![](https://img4.findglocal.com/511/138/970216215111389.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ด, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐น๐ ๐ต๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Mortgage rates were just slightly higher to end the week ahead of the holiday weekend, although it wasn't much. Fed officials were out speaking last week, with most of them saying they needed to see more signs that inflation was still dropping before they would consider voting to lower the Fed policy rate later this year.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฝ ๐ต๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Mortgage rates may continue to creep slightly higher this week, although we shouldn't see any big moves in rates. The big moves for rates could come next week when we get a lot of labor market reports and the BLS jobs data.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Inflation data: Friday brings the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's favored inflation gauge that tracks what goods and services consumers buy and how much they pay for them. Economists expect to see the smallest increase in inflation so far this year, which could help mortgage rates recover a bit if they creep higher through the week.
- Fed speakers: More Fed officials will be out speaking this week, likely to spread the same message as the members did last week, that the Fed needs to see inflation improve for a few months before cutting rates.
![](https://img4.findglocal.com/568/812/964448855688125.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Mortgage rates improved slightly last week when April's consumer price index report showed inflation easing for the first time in months. Rates were further helped when other data showed retail sales were unexpectedly flat last month.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐น๐ถ๐ธ๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ ๐
This week it is likely that mortgage rates will move slightly day-to-day, but will be basically unchanged for the week. Mortgage rates have settled in to a range anticipating that the Fed will cut rates two times this year, with the first cut likely to come at the September Fed meeting. Rates are not likely to move much lower unless we see more data showing the economy and labor market are slowing down while inflation is easing.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Fed speakers: Many of the Fed officials will be speaking this week, likely spreading the message that the Fed will keep its policy rate steady until later this year.
- Early close Friday: Markets will close early on Friday and be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. Lenders will also be closed on Monday.
- Economic data: There is little in the way of data this week to influence mortgage rates.
![](https://img5.findglocal.com/623/245/959005566232454.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ญ๐ฏ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐น๐ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Mortgage rates improved a little bit last week as markets remained optimistic that the Fed will cut rates later this year and will not need to instead start hiking rates to fight inflation. Overall it was a quiet week for rates as traders held steady ahead of this week's inflation data.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐น๐ฒ, ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ฒ โ ๏ธ
This week will be a big one for mortgage rates, which could either continue improving or will see a turnaround based on the reaction to the inflation data released this week. Be sure to stay in touch with your mortgage professional to assess the risks to locking or floating if you're currently in the mortgage process.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Inflation data: Wholesale inflation data comes out Tuesday, but will have a much smaller effect on mortgage rates than Wednesday's consumer CPI inflation data. The early projections are that we will see a slowing in inflation, which will help mortgage rates improve from here.
- Retail sales data: Because this report comes out on Wednesday at the same time as inflation, it will either help the market rally that improves rates or the sell off that pushes mortgage rates higher.
![](https://img4.findglocal.com/341/125/953884203411257.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฒ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Mortgage rates improved last week because markets grew more optimistic that the Fed was still committed to cutting rates later in the year despite inflation not falling much this year. Rates started improving after the Fed meeting on Wednesday when the Fed kept its policy rate unchanged and Fed Chair Powell made it clear that policy rate hikes were not yet on the table. Rates continued to improve through Friday's jobs data which showed the first clear sign of a softening labor market.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐น๐ถ๐ธ๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ ๐บ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐
This week is not likely to bring about much movement for rates after last week's big moves. Mortgage rates are now back to reflecting two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, and traders will be waiting to see what next week's inflation data shows.
๐๏ธ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Economic data: There is little economic data this week to affect mortgage rates, but some Treasury auctions this week could have a small effect, especially Wednesday's 10yr auction.
- Fed speakers: Fed members will be out speaking this week, and will likely reinforce the message that the Fed needs to hold rates steady until inflation shows signs of moving lower.
![](https://img5.findglocal.com/393/607/948635993936078.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐น ๐ฎ๐ต, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐
With little economic data and with traders waiting for this week's Fed meeting, rates moved slightly day-to-day but the moves were small and rates ended the week basically unchanged.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐น๐ฒ โ ๏ธ
This week brings major labor market data and the Fed meeting and press conference. Although we try to forecast what this will mean for mortgage rates, depending on what is said and how the data comes out this week we could see mortgage rates move significantly up or down. A good week to stay in touch with your mortgage professional.
๐๏ธ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Economic data: Wednesday brings the first of many jobs reports for the week, and Friday brings the BLS jobs data which will have the greatest effect on mortgage rates. Continued signs of a strong labor market will pressure mortgage rates to move higher, while any surprise weakness could help rates improve, although not likely by much.
- Fed meeting: Wednesday brings the Fed policy statement, where the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged but to signal that cuts are not likely until much later in the year. Powell's press conference after usually causes a strong reaction in mortgage rates.
![](https://img5.findglocal.com/776/638/943666297766381.jpg)
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐น ๐ฎ๐ฎ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ต๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Rates moved higher the early part of last week, but the good news is that they recovered a little bit the second half of the week and showed signs of settling down as markets adjusted to the idea that the Fed is much less likely to be cutting its policy rate until much later this year.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐บ๐ฒ ๐
Rates are not likely to move much this week, instead markets are waiting for more news from next week's jobs data and Fed meeting. After a couple of weeks of rates moving higher, seeing rates settle down and remain unchanged for the week would actually be a step in the right direction.
๐๏ธ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Economic data: Only a couple of reports this week that have even a little bit of influence on mortgage rates, including Friday's PCE inflation data (the Fed's favored inflation gauge), not likely to move rates either up or down much though.
- The Fed: Mortgage rates will continue to react to expectations of when and how much the Fed will cuts its policy rate this year. Rates were lower when markets expected 5-6 cuts in 2024, and rates have moved higher now that markets project only 1-2 cuts not likely to start until at least September.
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