U K Defence Forum

A DC3 which took part in the Berlin Airlift in 1948, now at the Luftwaffe Museum at former Gatow airfield

Just published at https://www.academia.edu/106924856/DV16_Op_Avalanche_the_invasion_of_Italy_1943_at_Salerno

A letter from Private Hickman about his experiences during the landings and after

DV16 Op Avalanche - the invasion of Italy 1943 at Salerno A December 1943 letter from Private Hickman Dear Mum, Dad You must by now be concerned, not having had a letter from me for such a long time. Well the news of the landings in Italy must by now be well known all over England, so I am able to tell you

Putin continues to exploit his friendship with Brasilia. Lula's government refuses to extradite Cherkasov, the Russian agent who tried to infiltrate the Hague Court with a false passport, to the US. Meanwhile, fears of cyber-penetration by hackers for the Kremlin grows, writes . For full story (with Spanish link) see

Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum. Up-to-the-minute perspectives on defence, security and peace issues from and for policy makers and opinion leaders.

An update ahead of the BRICS Summit by Professor Liviu Muresan has just been published at

Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum. Up-to-the-minute perspectives on defence, security and peace issues from and for policy makers and opinion leaders.

Race to the bottom : China and the Self Defeating Logic of Transactional Diplomacy in the Americas The U.S. shouldn't base its Latin America policy on trying to match China's actions in the region by Prof Evan Ellis now at

Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum. Up-to-the-minute perspectives on defence, security and peace issues from and for policy makers and opinion leaders.

Welcome to new followers. If you write on defence and security issues and are interested in submitting for publication, email [email protected]

Decline of the Hyperpower: How strategy, tactics and logistics erode United States global power. A sober analysis by Joseph E Fallon in answer to the question "Who would win if China invades Taiwan?" www.defenceviewpoints.co.uk

Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum. Up-to-the-minute perspectives on defence, security and peace issues from and for policy makers and opinion leaders.

Hail the departed hero. LIMBU Captain Rambahadur Limbu VC MVO 1 November 1939 -22 April 023 Queen's Gurkhas, First VC of Queen Elizabeth's reign.

(Lance Cpl Limbu)"displayed heroism, self-sacrifice and devotion to duty and to his men of the very highest order...a zenith of determined, premeditated valour which must count as amongst the most notable on record"(November 1965, Western Sarawak)

Russia - what comes after the war?

Unconditional surrender by Russia at the end of the Ukraine War it started seems an entirely fanciful notion. But as Edward Lucas wrote in The Times of London) on 5th December 2022, "Dealing with a defeated Russia will be tricky and western failure so far to prepare for this eventuality is lamentable."

This aide memoire just posted at www.defenceviewpoints.co.uk lays out various starting points for such considerations

Contents

* The EU's current policy

* Russia's position

* Ukraine's 10 point peace plan

* The Minsk agreements

* Proposed principles for a new EU-Russia strategy

Who damaged the Nordstream pipelines under the Baltic? A look at Russia's capabilities just posted at https://lnkd.in/gK-9_iT

Always looking for creative original contributions. Email me at [email protected] if you have something interesting to say

Mad or Bad? Looking at Putin's justifications for war. Anything in them? Looks like there might be something (as the Pope said recently) Joseph E Fallon reports at www.defenceviewpoints.co.uk

Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum. Up-to-the-minute perspectives on defence, security and peace issues from and for policy makers and opinion leaders.

Latest at www.defenceviewpoints.co.uk (one day the most up to date article will appear in the link...)

Ukrainians are fighting for our freedom, our values and our security by Brigadier General (Ret) Patrick F.P. Nopens. He did two tours as a defence attaché in Moscow, and travelled extensively throughout the former Soviet Union.

Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum. Up-to-the-minute perspectives on defence, security and peace issues from and for policy makers and opinion leaders.

Ukraine statement by EURODEFENSE presidents 28 March 22

The Presidents of the EURODEFENSE network of defence and security specialists across Europe, meeting today

1. Condemn in the strongest possible terms the invasion of Ukraine.

2. Congratulate and admire the Ukrainian people for their courage in the face of Russian aggression

3. Note the rapid reaction of the European Union and nations in their support of Ukraine

4. Recognise that further massive European aid will be necessary to support refugees and to rebuild Ukraine

5. Welcome the commitment of European nations to accelerate meeting or exceeding their NATO spending targets

6. Believe that a collective approach to defence, security and resilience is more important than ever.

7. Resolve to continue with renewed urgency the network’s studies on practical steps to mutual defence.

#

Events overnight have made this Eurodefense – UK webinar on Thursday 3rd March 2022 at 16.30 GMT even more relevant and timely

Russia – the Western Response

with

Ian Bond
Director of Foreign policy
Centre for European Reform

and

Ed Arnold
Research Fellow, European Security
Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies

Chaired by

Robert Walter
President, Eurodefense - UK

All participants who are registered will be sent the ZOOM log in details on Wednesday 2nd March

To register please email Robin Ashby, Secretary General, Eurodefense – UK, with your name and email address at

[email protected]

Security signpost : The OSCE monitoring mission reports from Ukraine make alarming reading - there's already scope for contriving an incident to justify an invasion.

This from Thursday :

In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 738 ceasefire violations, including 156 explosions, 277 of which were assessed as live-fire exercises outside the security zone. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 27 ceasefire violations in the region.

In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded 11 ceasefire violations, all explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 224 ceasefire violations in the region.

Explosions occurred near SMM patrol near non-government-controlled Manuilivka, Donetsk region.

Small-arms fire was assessed as directed at an SMM mini-unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) near non-government-controlled Staromykhailivka, Donetsk region and an SMM mini-UAV was lost due to signal interference near non-government-controlled Lozove, Donetsk region.

Add to this the parallels to the Sinai in 1967, as OCSE contributors start to pull out their personnel...

Russia’s pivot to China will neither undermine the special relationship between New Delhi and Moscow, nor threaten India’s security. Infusions of Chinese capital will not induce Moscow to acquiesce in Beijing’s policies to strategically isolate India. Read more in Joe Fallon's new article at www.defenceviewpoints.co.uk

Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum. Up-to-the-minute perspectives on defence, security and peace issues from and for policy makers and opinion leaders.

The EU has suspended its military training mission in the Central African Republic - see The Times today and https://euobserver.com/tickers/153865- because some of the troops trained are now under the command of the Wagner mercenary group (considered to be a private proxy army of the Russian state.)

Euan Grant, a member of ED-UK who has studied and written on the activities of Wagner - most recently for www.defenceviewpoints.co.uk - has provided a commentary on the story. For a copy email me on [email protected]

[Ticker] EU suspends Africa training mission The EU has suspended its military mission in Central African Republic after Russian mercenaries began taking control of EU-trained soldiers. "The temporary suspension of our operations aims to avoid any overlapping with these mercenaries and ensure they d...

in the Black Sea: Geopolitics as an example of Newton’s Laws of Motion - another open-minded analysis by Joseph E Fallon for the U K Defence Forum, now published at https://lnkd.in/gK-9_iT

Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum. Up-to-the-minute perspectives on defence, security and peace issues from and for policy makers and opinion leaders.

A threat is an intention and a capability. This article by Joseph E Fallon reveals China's intentions in their own words http://www.defenceviewpoints.co.uk/articles-and-analysis/powers-pawns-and-paradoxes-eu-options-should-china-invade-taiwan

Powers, Pawns, and Paradoxes: EU options should China invade Taiwan - Defence Viewpoints from UK Defence Forum On July 1, 2021, in his speech celebrating the 100 th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, China’s President Xi declared:

5th November - Vienna. AIES/Eurodefense conference. For details and to follow on Youtube https://youtu.be/Rv8hqQPU37c

25th AIES European Forum We are proud to present the live-stream of the 25th AIES European Forum

My friend Anatol Lieven has just published this - link below. As he says in the article, he has visited Pakistan and the Taliban. He has also been a "back channel" in deniable negotiations. There are no easy answers or future certainties, and nobody wears black or white hats...but UK policy cannot be evacuate 12,000 people and then forget about the area (BTW Afghanistan and Pakistan are the last two countries in the world where polio is endemic...)
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/08/26/who-are-the-islamic-state-in-afghanistan/

Who are the Islamic State in Afghanistan? – Responsible Statecraft The ghastly bombings today in Afghanistan reflect a very real struggle for the Taliban in its quest for control of the country.

After 20 years of service and sacrifice by our Armed Forces in Afghanistan, the Taliban have swept back to power, risking both British national security and the lives of Afghan civilians, especially women and girls.

Cllr Robin Ashby, an Armed Forces Champion in Newcastle upon Tyne and Convenor of the Liberal Democrats’ Friends of the Armed Forces, said “Our thoughts are with the relatives of those British personnel killed in Afghanistan, and those who suffered life changing injuries in body or mind. As a humane and civilised society we must not just do our duty by those Afghans who served us and who are now at risk, but we must be prepared to offer sanctuary to those who fear oppression from the new regime and who able to flee the country, or support neighbouring countries who take them in.”

“Many former soldiers and their families are now being forced to ask the awful question: 'was it all worth it?' Hearing their stories has been truly heart-wrenching. No one in our Armed Forces should ever have to question whether their sacrifice and the sacrifice of the fallen was worth it,” said Ed Davey MP, Leader of the Liberal Democrats.

“British lives were lost combatting the threat of terrorism in Afghanistan, but now Prime Minister Johnson has made the British people less safe by leaving it to become a breeding ground for Al-Qaeda again. He should have been warning Donald Trump and Joe Biden of the dangers of withdrawal, and done all he could to stop this disaster.

"The nature of our withdrawal has meant that all we set out to achieve in Afghanistan has been lost. Mr Johnson has failed to leverage our relationship with the United States. The management of our evacuation has been shambolic. He must accept his share of responsibility. On behalf of the Government, the Prime Minister must now apologise to our Armed Forces personnel and their families.”

“Having served in Afghanistan and having represented scores of others who have too, I am left with an empty feeling given the descent of the country,” said Allan Steele, a former RAF officer and now a human rights lawyer, who is Secretary of the Liberal Democrat Friends of the Armed Forces

“I look back on the claims that we would bring security and the rule of law to Afghanistan and I feel let down. I was not convinced at the time and I felt guilty for being cynical.

“That is nothing to the disappointment I feel for those who have now been left to face the consequences - the Afghan people. They are being failed. They are losing their lives and many, many more will die in the days, weeks and months to come. Some will be murdered in circumstances of appalling brutality.

“We underestimate opponents at every turn. We think of conflicts as long term if they exceed WWII periods. We underestimate the tenacity and patience of opponents. We expect things to be done quickly, for we get bored. That is not so in other parts of the world, where the harshness of life has never allowed boredom to take hold.

“We should think very carefully about that prior to using force in anger in other nations. But for now, we should be ready to defend those innocent people who placed their trust in us. And in order to do that, we need Armed Forces that have high morale and a common purpose of doing right by the vulnerable.”

Women in the UK Armed Forces - Parliamentary Committee report just published https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/24/defence-committee/news/156892/report-protecting-those-who-protect-us-women-in-the-armed-forces-from-recruitment-to-civilian-life/

Report: Protecting Those Who Protect Us: Women in the Armed Forces from Recruitment to Civilian Life - Committees - UK Parliament The Defence Sub-Committee on Women in the Armed Forces publishes its report “Protecting Those Who Protect Us: Women in the Armed Forces from Recruitment to Civilian Life".

Tianxia - is this the blueprint for a China-led New World Order? Please read the paper at https://www.academia.edu/s/e20b9c6ca2?source=link by Joe Fallon and comment thereon

Tianxia: China's Quest for a New World Order An invitation to join Robin Ashby's Discussion on Academia.edu.

European Defence Agency annual report available here https://eda.europa.eu/publications-and-data/all-publications/annual-report-2020

Annual Report 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic was certainly the all dominant theme of 2020, with dramatic repercussions on our lives. Yet, when it comes to EU defence cooperation, last year has also brought its fair share of encouraging developments and achievements.

MOD is currently consulting on the requirement for summary figures showing the number of UK armed forces service leavers by geographical location to be published. We are trying to understand if there is a need for this information and, if so, what it would be used for. The consultation is open until 11 April 2021.

If you are interested in contributing, please see the list of specific questions at: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/publication-of-figures-on-service-leavers-by-geographical-location

Please note, responses are to be sent to [email protected]

Publication of figures on service leavers by geographical location. A consultation to assess the need for published information on UK armed forces service leavers by geographic location. Responses to the questions by 11 April 2021.

Dr Peter Roberts Director Military Sciences and Senior Research Fellow, RUSI - assessment of the Defence Review

"The reality is that even if all the bets, presumptions and assumptions [in this paper] come to pass, and a good amount of luck comes into play, the UK military will emerge in 2031 fit for some of the tasks it does now, but not all of them. Nothing more. And if just one of these factors is wrong, an assumption is overturned, a technology fails to deliver perfectly or events move out of synchronisation, then the UK will be significantly weaker and more vulnerable than it is today." There is much to be said about last week's IR in the UK and the associated Defence Command Paper, published last night. More available on line at the Royal United Services Institute, and extra pieces from my team especially for RUSI members on the implications of the reviews for the British military by domain and theme

This from Luis Valer : Delighted to announce the publication of my latest analysis on the challenges in the .

Special thanks to and my colleagues from for the support and also to for publishing this in-depth analysis.

eurodefense.fr/euro/