Sandy Chee, Realtor

Contract activity for the week of August 25 -31, 2024 in the Metro DC area rose by 4.3% compared to the same seven-day period last year.

Key Takeaways:
• That increase is positive news, especially given that last year's period didn't include any portion of the Labor Day Weekend, while this week's numbers picked up two days of the long holiday weekend. With so much travel over the last weekend of summer, we wouldn't have been surprised to see a modest decrease.
• Five of the six areas we track posted increase, with Prince George's County as the lone exception.

Why it Matters:
• While August was still a typically slow month, it was better than last August, and year-to-date contract activity is up 1.7%
• As we have noted before, homes priced over $750,000 are faring better than those in the lower price ranges that are more impacted by interest rates. Contracts over $750K are up 14.1% through the first 8 months of the year, while contracts under $750K are down 3.3%

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Contract activity for the week of August 18 -24, 2024, in the Metro DC area rose 8.2% compared to the same seven-day period last year.

Key Takeaways:
· That increase is encouraging news, but the market still hasn’t seen a significant bounce in response to the recent decreases in mortgage interest rates.
· August tends to be a fairly sluggish month, as folks get on vacation before school starts, so we’re not overly concerned that we haven’t seen that bump yet.
· This coming week, heading into the Labor Day weekend, is likely to be pretty quiet, as it will be the first week in September.

Why it Matters:
· It’s really what happens mid-September and beyond that bears watching. Although the mortgage market is anticipating a 25 to 50 basis point cut in the Federal Funds Rates at their September meeting, there is still a waiting game to see what happens.
· With weaker-than-expected jobs numbers, the expectation for that rate cut is rising – so if it doesn’t happen, markets will likely react negatively. It could also mean that the rate cut will be larger than expected.

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McEnearney Associates profiles the most important market indicators for the DMV area every month! This includes:

• contract activity
• interest rates
• inventory
• affordability
• direction of the market

The report highlights why these numbers are important and what they mean for the future of the real estate market. For a copy of the full report, visit mcenearney.com/market-in-a-minute.

Contract activity in the Metro DC area during the week of August 11 -17, 2024, fell by 4.1% compared to the same seven-day period last year.

Key Takeaways:
• While interest rates have been trending down over the last month, they ticked up a bit last week, and contract activity ticked down a bit.
• We hoped for a little more positive news on the contract front, but August has been quiet in general. A slight change in interest rates doesn't counteract a sluggish market.
• Only Prince George's had a positive week among the six jurisdictions we track – up 16.0%.

Why it Matters:
• It seems like the market is holding its breath for news on interest rates from the Fed after Labor Day.
• While most experts expect a cut in the Fed funds rate of .25% to .5%, mortgage rates are not directly tied to the Fed.

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The work of one person – an appraiser – answers the above questions!

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If you are considering selling or buying a home, here's what your future appraiser would like you to know!

https://www.mcenearney.com/blog/real-estate-appraisals-in-a-shifting-market/

Take a look at the newly listed homes at McEnearney Associates! To view the full list, please visit mcenearney.com/new-real-estate-listings.

Contract activity in the Metro DC area during the week of August 4 -10, 2024, rose by 1.1% compared to the same seven-day period last year.

Key Takeaways:
· In a week where 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level – 6.47% - in over a year, it was encouraging to see an increase in the number of newly ratified contracts.
· Three of the six jurisdictions we track - Loudoun, Prince William, and Prince George’s - posted increases, while the remaining three had minor losses.
· Despite this year-over-year increase, the number of contracts was down 2% from just one week ago.

Why it Matters:
· It’s just another indication that the market remains pretty flat, as buyers and sellers alike seem to be waiting for more significant drops in mortgage rates before getting off the fence.
· As noted before, the lower end of the market is more sensitive to high rates. Contract activity for homes priced under $750,000 is down 7.1% so far this year, while activity for home prices above $750,000 is up 9.1%

Contract activity in the Metro DC area during the week of July 28 – August 3, 2024, fell by 8.8% compared to the same seven-day period last year.

Key Takeaways:
• The market is static, sluggish, idle, and stuck in Neutral. It’s not bad, but it’s not robust either.
• The modest drop in mortgage rates last week wasn’t enough to spur the market forward, as contract activity looks much like last year. Two of the six jurisdictions (Loudoun and Prince William Counties) posted increases, but the other four were down.

Why it Matters:
• Year-to-date, five of the six jurisdictions are virtually unchanged. Contract activity in Montgomery County is up 2.6%, while Northern Virginia, Loudoun, Prince William, and Prince George’s County are down between 0.5% and 2.4%. Flat.
• Washington, DC, continues its struggles, with contract activity falling 15.2% this year.

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Fortunately, the greater DMV area is close to various beaches, lakes, and rivers, which are ideal for cooling off! Check out these top picks for a quick day trip—or weekend getaway.

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Contract activity for the week of July 21 – 27, 2024, in the Metro DC area fell by 5.2% compared to the same seven-day period last year.

Key Takeaways:
· The 26.3% drop in the number of newly ratified contracts in Washington, DC was almost entirely responsible for the overall drop in the DC metro area.
· The other five jurisdictions were pretty flat. Three posted modest gains (Prince George’s County, Prince William County, and Loudoun County), and two posted modest losses (Northern Virginia and Montgomery County).

Why it Matters:
· Washington, DC is the outlier – year-to-date contract activity is down 15%, while the other five areas are almost unchanged from last year.
· It’s almost as if the market has hit the “pause” button, perhaps waiting for the Fed to make a move on interest rates.

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Your home is one of your most significant investments—whether you own and pay a mortgage or rent—and a little TLC goes a long way. Here are a few of our best suggestions for keeping your home maintenance on track this summer!

Contract activity for the week of July 14 – 20, 2024 in the Metro DC area rose by 0.8% compared to the same seven-day period last year.

Key Takeaways:
• The gains in Montgomery County (up 24%) and Northern Virginia (up 2.3%) were enough to offset modest losses in the other four jurisdictions we track.
• The modest drop in the 30-year mortgage interest rate last week helped a bit, while the continuing scorching heat kept many people from looking at houses.

Why it Matters:
• The real estate market in the Washington, DC metro area is OK – just OK. It’s been a lot worse before, like during the Great Recession, and it’s been a lot better, like when interest rates were below 3%.
• The reality is that there is less activity from buyers and sellers alike than in the several years before the onset of COVID. We have a long way to go before returning to “normal.”

Contract activity in the Metro DC area during the week of July 7 – 13, 2024, fell by 16.5% compared to the same seven-day period last year.

Key Takeaways:
· Only Prince George’s County posted an increase in contract activity last week. The other five areas had pretty big drops.
· This fairly dismal performance follows a very positive period just the week before. Contracts for the week of June 30 – July 6 were up 11.3%. We suspect both results were skewed by the impact of the 4th of July holiday period. If we look at the total activity of the last two weeks combined, the number of newly ratified contracts is flat.

Why it Matters:
· Persistently high mortgage rates are suppressing contract activity, especially for homes in price ranges that would be most attractive to first-time purchasers.
· In every jurisdiction, activity for homes priced under $750,000 has suffered compared to homes priced over that benchmark. Year-to-date, the number of homes going under contract for less than $750K is down 7%, while it’s up almost 10% for more expensive homes.

Contract activity for the week of June 30 – July 6, 2024, in the Metro DC area rose by 11.3% compared to the same seven-day period last year.

Key Takeaways:
· Five of the six jurisdictions posted increases in newly ratified contracts. Only Washington, DC, had a drop.
· While this is an excellent kick-off for the back half of 2024, it is likely that these numbers are somewhat skewed by the timing of the 4th of July. Last year, the 4th was on a Tuesday, so the holiday "weekend" really started on Friday, June 30. That almost certainly accounted for lower buyer activity. But an increase is an increase, and we'll take that anytime!

Why it Matters:
· The positive performance last week brings year-to-date contract activity to just 1.5% lower than the equivalent period last year. Northern Virginia and Montgomery County are actually slightly ahead of last year's pace.
· We've seen an increase in inventory, as more listings are coming on the market compared to last year, which may provide some welcome relief to purchasers who have been faced with few choices for an extended period. The next few weeks should tell us a great deal about what the second-half market will look like.