MarketCipher Partners

The entire MarketCipher team is so very thankful for all those who have supported and entrusted us to be their guiding light! Wishing everyone a Happy Thanksgiving!

There is mounting evidence that the most recent meltdown in strong/loved companies (Ex. Apple down 14% in one week) may be related to investors having to cover margin calls (due to speculative bets) and not solely due to Federal Reserve tightening. In my opinion, there is some blood in the streets!* Potential capitulation on a trading basis? "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffett

*Below chart includes the price action of Netflix, Coinbase, and the ARKK Innovation ETF from early November 2021(Source: Bloomberg LP)

I am very excited to announce that my firm MarketCipher has scaled its offerings to provide wealth management services for individuals.

Whether you are looking for growth, preservation of capital or a mix of both, we have the right product for you.

My goal is to democratize investing by offering individuals services that are typically exclusive to large institutional clients. That’s one way I aim to make a positive impact in the world.

So, what’s in it for you?

- Take a look at how your portfolio is doing in this difficult environment. The game has changed, have you? In this market, you need real professionals that know how to navigate turbulent times and watch your hard-earned money.

- Even if you have an existing advisor, wouldn’t it make sense to diversify?

- We are independent and have fully aligned incentives with you.

- We take retirement accounts.

- Our pricing is very competitive.

- We truly care, that’s why I personally love teaching and educating. Others, they just want your money, they don’t want you to learn.

I recall when I switched my career from Silicon Valley to Wall Street that I was shocked by its arrogant and greedy culture. What you see in the movies is what you get.

So, I founded MarketCipher with the vision of having the character and genuine desire to help others. This is now a reality and I am pumped about it! YEAH!

Please feel free to reach out to me if you have any need. I would love the opportunity to earn your business ($100K minimum investment).
Referrals are also very much appreciated!

Thank you very much,

Abdel Missa
CEO

Sanctions on Russia will increase the price you pay at the pump, experts say Petroleum price analyst Patrick De Haan warns prices may not recede until the summer, or later, depending on what Russia does.

Are you concerned about or feeling the effects of inflation?

Check out founder and CIO, Abdel Missa, on First Coast News.

'The rest of 2021 is very tricky': Stock market expert discusses future of your money One expert weighs in as the economy deals with inflation, supply chain problems and the new Omicron COVID-19 variant.

Behind the scenes from today’s interview with First Coast News. Be on the lookout for a much anticipated market update early next week.

Check out our latest video!

https://youtu.be/qL3LlKB6F8Y

ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION? Current Inflation Explained Are you worried about inflation? In this video, I discuss what is happening with inflation and how it could be affecting you.For more information on my comp...

We wish you a safe and happy Fourth of July!

Our President, Michael Marrapese, had the pleasure of joining Tom McManus and David Sillick on "The Horse's Mouth", a show dedicated to sports, business, and life in the Jacksonville community on BUZZ Media This show does a great job of highlighting the great things that are happening in the region both on and off the field! Check it out as they discuss how investors and savers may need a new playbook in this unprecedented investing environment.



https://iwantabuzz.com/biz/the-horses-mouth/michael-marrapese-from-marketcipher-partners/

"The Horse's Mouth" with Michael Marrapese from Marketcipher Partners Welcome to “The Horse’s Mouth” with Tom McManus, a cool, unique talk show where Tom’s guests sidle up to his bar to discuss sports, business and life. Today, Tom sits down with Michael Marrapese from Marketcipher Partners.

Usage of the Federal Reserve’s facility for overnight reverse repurchase agreements surged to a record high for the fourth consecutive day (Source: Alexandra Harris, Bloomberg, LP). What does this most likely mean? The banks are just sitting on cash and have nowhere to park it and are using it to temporarily reduce the quantity of reserve balances (Reminder: Reverse Repo is basically the banks lending to the FED). It also signifies the banks don’t have significant loan demand, which is probably just another example of a low velocity of money that will need to pick up for real inflation to occur.

Land of the free, because of the brave.

Thank you to all the brave men and women that have given their lives for our freedom. We hope everyone has a safe Memorial Day weekend!

Is the inflation the genie out of the bottle? CPI MOM (less food and energy) just blew out the expectation with a 0.9% increase… the highest since the early 1980s. S&P Futures quickly sold off, but then rebounded off of the lows. Will the old saying "the first reaction is always the wrong one" hold here? We find it interesting that used cars and trucks, gas utilities, general commodity, and transport services all had outsized gains (Source: Bloomberg, LP, BLS Release). Maybe the markets are pricing in only a transitory(temporary) increase in prices?

Bold market prediction for 2021... check out where our Founder and CIO thinks the market will be by the end of the year!

https://youtu.be/PtSoWfsHx9A

S&P500 MARKET PREDICTION It has been almost a year now since I made the prediction that the S&P500 was going to reach 3700 by the end of 2020. People thought there was no way that t...

One area of the market that has shown tremendous strength over the last year is the junk bond market. With massive stimulus in the system, investors have been aggressive buyers, pushing spreads tighter by the day. Now, however, some are starting to say this has gone too far in a big way. With simmering worries about rates and inflation, hedge funds have accumulated the largest short position against junk bonds since 2008 (Bloomberg, L.P.) It will take time to see if this view is the correct one, but for now tens of billions of dollars in short bets are saying that it is.

Today Bitcoin was able to achieve a new all-time high, reaching just shy of $64,000 during intraday trading (Bloomberg, L.P.) This comes one day before the highly anticipated direct listing of Coinbase on the Nasdaq Exchange. Coinbase, being the most widely used and recognized crypto exchange, will arguably give investors the best opportunity to get indirect exposure to crypto as its fortunes are closely tied with the amount of activity in that market. After all of the recent crypto craze, this is a fairly significant event that could be an indication of how much appetite investors still have for the space going forward.

Happy Easter weekend from MarketCipher Partners!

The market works in funny ways. Many times when everyone starts talking about the same thing, the opposite happens. In our opinion, many people have taken note of the rising price of gas of which the price of oil is a major contributor. Ironically, as that rhetoric has ramped up we’ve seen roughly a 12.5% pullback in the price of crude oil since March 11th (Bloomberg, L.P.). Although that may not be why oil sold off it is ironic to see the market flip on a dime right around the time it became newsworthy again.

MarketCipher's founder and CEO, Abdel Missa, was featured in this episode of Context Conversations. Check it out!

MarketCipher Partners Interviewed by Context l Context Conversations MarketCipher Partner's founder and CEO, Abdel Missa, is interviewed by Eric Noll, CEO of Context. In this Context Conversations, Abdel Missa explains Marke...

The market always likes to keep people on their toes and today was no different. Oil had its worst day in six months, down over 9% at one point during the day (Bloomberg, L.P.) Along with that, bond yields continued to rise aggressively after Fed Chairman Powell showed no concern over their recent sharp rise during his FOMC press conference yesterday. This created a knock on effect in equities, with Nasdaq and Russell 2000 down 3% on the day. The ensuing period should be interesting as investors weigh the risks of potentially uncapped rates in the short term compared to the massive growth prospects that were outlined by the Fed yesterday.

Today the House of Representatives passed the amended stimulus bill, totaling $1.9 trillion. Now that this will be behind, most people’s focus will turn to potential developments surrounding a massive infrastructure bill that could be released over the coming weeks and months. Along with that, people will continue to look for any signs of inflation developing from the massive amounts of money that is being spent. The second half of 2021 should be quite an interesting one for the markets and economy.

Today has brought a massive reversal in the tech names that have been slammed recently as a result of bond yield worries. Tesla, for example, was down 40% from its peak at one point but has reversed massively to be up 18% so far today (Bloomberg, L.P.) This could be a defining week for the Nasdaq, as the US Treasury will be holding large bond auctions throughout the week. If there is demand for the long end issues like the 10 year and 30 year, some fears of rates spiraling out of control could be assuaged for now. This would be a direct benefit for Nasdaq as the recent rates episode has clearly been a downside catalyst for the growth heavy index.

Big drivers of price action yesterday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell giving long bond-holders no helping hand as he in our opinion did not try to contain the bond selloff with his language. Couple that with West Texas oil trading above $65/barrel and one can see why investors repriced equities yesterday. As we previously wrote, if the yield curve continues to rise at a fast pace and signs of inflation continue to pop up…..it may force investors to reprice equities.

At one point today the US 10-Year Treasury bond was up 16bps….capitulation maybe?! If rates continue on this path investors will be forced to reprice equities.

Today Bitcoin reached $1 Trillion in market cap for the first time (Bloomberg, L.P.) Will the rally continue to see the price make it to 100K? Some seem to think so, but on a more interesting level will be the continuing dynamic of bitcoin vs gold as a store of value. Many seem to be gravitating towards bitcoin while gold has underperformed since last summer. With the likes of Elon Musk and other household names seemingly hopping on the cryptocurrency train, it will make for a very intriguing setup going forward.

The US housing market continues to boom at an unprecedented rate. During Q4, the median price of single-family homes rose by 14.9%, the biggest surge in data going back to 1990 (National Association of Realtors). Supply has remained very tight with demand continuing to be supported in part by the desire to move away from the city and record low-interest rates. Over the long run, this dynamic is likely to change as more people get priced out and/or more inventory makes it onto the market. But, in the meantime prices continue to shoot for the moon and haven’t showed signs of slowing.

During overnight trading, the yield on the 30 year treasury bond hit 2% for the first time since February 2020 (Bloomberg, L.P.). Although many people are desensitized to rates near zero we have seen a continued march higher that has gotten us back to levels from a year ago. This time though yields are in a fairly decisive uptrend, compared to the prior downtrend we had been in since late 2018. With an economy that seems to be strengthening, more stimulus likely to be coming, and a very accommodative Federal Reserve it will be interesting to see where bond yields go the rest of the year.

ROBINHOOD TRADING BACKLASH: Here is What You Need to Know What is going on with Robinhood? Are they the bad guys or are they really the victims in this situation? Recently, Robinhood restricted trading on certain ...

IS SHORT SELLING CRIMINAL? Short Selling Explained Is short selling legal? Should it be banned? Recently Elon Musk, the CEO is Tesla, said that shorting stocks is a scam since you can’t sell cars or houses t...

2020 was a trading year for the ages and 2021 isn’t showing any signs of being any different. Multiple stocks are running into trading pauses being up double, if not triple digits on the day (Source: Bloomberg, LP). This is a continuation of a recent trend of this happening in highly shorted small-cap companies. The Reddit thread r/wallstreetbets has been one group seemingly going after these stocks. It has turned into quite the atmosphere of retail vs professionals. Who knows when the craziness will abate or if there are other factors at play here. What we do find interesting as we write is that the S&P500 is 1.5% down? Could it actually be that the retail investor is forcing liquidation of other positions to meet margin calls? We will be watching and listening.