Phillips & Company

It's Not All Bad News -

It's Not All Bad News Despite the shock and sharp rally in oil prices due to the Saudi Arabian oil facility attack, there is some underlying good news to consider at this stage of the cycle. [i]

We Can’t Predict But We Can Prepare -

We Can’t Predict But We Can Prepare Regardless of what economic, geopolitical, corporate, Trump tweet, or market-moving event occurs, all equity investors need to be prepared for risk.

Is There An Alternative? -

Is There An Alternative? For the first time since the middle of 2008 Financial Crisis, the S&P 500 Dividend Yield is greater than the yield on 5-, 10-, and 30-year treasuries. [i]

Playing with Fire Equals Burning Your Hand -

Playing with Fire Equals Burning Your Hand President Trump’s remarks concerning his ongoing trade war with China took on epic proportions last week as he simultaneously attacked the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and the President of China Xi Jinping on Friday. [i]

You Can’t Eat Forecasts -

You Can’t Eat Forecasts Last week in our blog “What Else Can Go Wrong,” we accurately predicted several outcomes that would increase equity market volatility.

What Else Can Go Wrong? -

What Else Can Go Wrong? The old adage of Murphy’s law states, “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.” This probably applies to our current season of worry. Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi sums it up well with the following chart. [i]

Rate Cuts, Then Trump Erupts -

Rate Cuts, Then Trump Erupts While we believed a 50 basis-point rate cut was the best course of action, the Federal Reserve ended up cutting rates by the minimal 25 basis points. On July 31, the Fed said:

The Economy Has a New Friend -

The Economy Has a New Friend When you break down the four component parts of the U.S. economy, the strengths and weaknesses come into clear focus. [ii]

Trade War and Wage War -

Trade War and Wage War We’ve written in the past on our view that President Trump is waging a trade war to maximize his influence on the Federal Reserve. Though we believe he is prosecuting a case against China, the uncertainty he is creating in global GDP growth, in our opinion, is causing the Fed to consider cutting i...

Resetting Expectations -

Resetting Expectations Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell almost assured market participants an interest rate cut is inevitable and likely to occur in July. Chairman Powell made the following statements in his congressional testimony;

Q3 Look Ahead -

Q3 Look Ahead Further, our belief is that Trump’s managed trade war will back the Fed into a corner, leading them to cut rates. Certainly, expectations are calling for a rate cut this year. [iii]

Trump’s Trade Game -

Trump’s Trade Game The Trump administration looks to be playing its cards perfectly when it comes to its broader objectives and goals. The administration announced it would be resuming trade discussions with China, without any specificity on when the trade discussions will conclude. Trump suggested he would be patient...

Phillips & Company updated their website address.

No Patience -

No Patience Last week, our post analyzed the possibility that the Federal Reserve would make adjustments to its language suggesting that patience is still required when discussing cutting interest rates, due to weakening economic data. [i]

Patience -

Patience As the year progresses, the economic forecasts of Federal Reserve Banks and economists suggest the U.S. economy is experiencing a significant downshift in growth.

Guard Rails -

Guard Rails In the midst of this historically prolonged period of economic growth, there is little question the U.S economy has hit a few speed bumps on its road to expansion.

Phillips & Company updated their phone number.

Phillips & Company updated their business hours.

Phillips & Company updated their address.

Trump’s Trade Game -

Trump’s Trade Game Last week’s commentary, which focused on regular recession cycles and the role credit plays in consumption/economic stimulation, can be viewed here.

Consumers Return to Normal? -

Consumers Return to Normal? Last week’s commentary focused on corporate borrowing and its relationships to the financial crisis, which can be viewed here.

Don’t Look at the Shiny Object -

Don’t Look at the Shiny Object So much of investor focus has been on the dysfunctional trade negotiations between the United States and China. This has caused investors to miss some critical pieces of data from our economy. Before I get to what that data may be, allow me to remind you of the simple fact that markets correct on a....

A Fundamental Misunderstanding -

A Fundamental Misunderstanding President Trump stepped up the pressure on China to resolve the current trade war by unexpectedly increasing tariffs on China’s exports to the United States.

Rate Cuts? Not So Fast! -

Rate Cuts? Not So Fast! Investors have seen the Federal Reserve come full circle over the past five months. The Fed went from a “hawkish” rhetoric and raising interest rates to a “dovish” rhetoric putting further interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future. [i]

Deceiving Headline GDP -

Deceiving Headline GDP Last week the S&P 500 added a new notch to its belt. For the first time since September 2018, the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high. [i]

The Public Utility Kicks In -

The Public Utility Kicks In With just a few weeks’ worth of S&P 500 earnings reports released for Q1 2019, the earnings recession we have been talking about for many weeks is beginning to take shape.

The Enemy Is Us -

The Enemy Is Us To celebrate Earth Day almost 40 years ago, Walt Kelly wrote, “We have met the enemy and he is us.” The essence of his work was to remind Americans we were all responsible for hurting the environment. [i]

Q2 2019 Look Ahead -

Q2 2019 Look Ahead After completing the first full trading week of the second quarter, the market continues to rocket toward the all-time highs it reached last September. With the market’s exuberance, we’d like to remind investors of the potential clouds headed our way, as we present you with our Q2 2019 Look Ahea...