Steven Roth

Bill and Waffles at their new home in Tucson!

Got homes for sale in Southern Arizona... and if you don't want to be my neighbor, I can refer a top agent to help you too...

need a good buyer's agent? I can find you some good fixer uppers...

my lender guy, Friday March 29...

Friday Mortgage Update Friday Mortgage Update

Home appreciation in 2020 ranged between 19-31% in Southern Arizona. Things have slowed down. Home appreciation in 2023 was only 6%, but with low inventory, it's still a seller's market.

If you have any questions or concerns regarding the NAR settlement, give me a call...

interested in "New Builds"... let me show you around...

D.R. Horton America's Largest Homebuilder Since 1978, D.R. Horton has consistently delivered top-quality new homes to homebuyers across the nation and maintained our commitment to excellence.

In the desert once again contributing to global warming

Did You Know?

Our Refine Your Rate Guarantee* goes through December 31st!

When a borrower applies for a purchase with us from now through 12/31/2023, they can refinance with no loan origination fees before 12/31/2025!*

Rates are ever-changing, and we want to give your buyers peace of mind that they are not committed to today's rates forever if they go down in the future.
Message me for more info on this lender.

Following a series of interest rate hikes at 10 consecutive meetings in 2022 and 2023, the Federal Reserve finally paused at its June 14 meeting — only to resume July 26, with a one-quarter percentage point increase. Inflation has fallen to 3 percent, near the Fed's official goal of 2 percent, and housing economists say the end is near for the central bank's intense fight against inflation. "We do expect mortgage rates to trend down once the [Federal Open Market Committee] clearly signals that they have reached the peak for this cycle, as the reduction in uncertainty with respect to the direction of rates should narrow the spread of mortgage rates relative to Treasury benchmarks," says Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Mortgage Rates Forecast for Q1 and Q2 2024, as of September 2023:

At some future point when mortgage rates do moderate downward, it is likely an increase in demand will follow and continue further pricing gains, when pent up demand/buyers enter the market (even accounting for more new listings). If buyers are waiting for pricing to fall, they may be missing an opportunity for equity growth now. Financing a larger $ amount in a few years may offset any savings on a lower mortgage rate, monthly payment is not just about rate.

If you're still renting, the best time to buy a home was yesterday. The second best time to buy is today. Why? Home inventory down 20% in the last year. Homelessness up all over the country. 40% of Tucson living in poverty. Despite higher interest rates, median home prices falling. Due to falling home prices, cash investors that were buying up every thing 18 months ago have disappeared. Rental vacancies are up. If you need a home and/or need to talk to a top lender, please message me.

You asked and we delivered!
Here's the relief needed from these high Intrest rates not to mention the down payment assistance.
4% down payment assistance at a low fixed rate of 6.2% now available. This program can save you hundreds on your payment compared to current market rates!
Call or DM Jon today with any questions! https://linktr.ee/jonhumigmortgage
Always available for your questions.
Steven Roth, 301-542-2760, [email protected]

This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.



Rates are provided by Housing Wire in conjunction with Optimal Blue. Rates are updated in real-time. Optimal Blue data is calculated using actual locked rates with consumers across 42% of all mortgage transactions nationwide. Rates are inclusive of locks that occur below par, at par and therefore consider discounts and rebates.

For the week of June 30th – July 6th, 30-year and 15-year interest rates have increased.

Despite affordability challenges, homebuyers have adjusted to mortgage interest rates hovering in the six to seven percent range for over six months. This adaptation has resulted in new home sales reaching their highest levels in over a year. New home sales have rebounded more robustly than the resale market due to a marginally greater supply of new construction. As a result, improved demand has led to a firming of prices, which have now increased for several months in a row.

Experts are forecasting that the 30-year, fixed-mortgage rate will fall to within the 5% to 6% range later in 2023, though some predict it might go higher. As of June 29th, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.71%, up from 6.67% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac.

Experts expect the Federal Reserve's ongoing monetary policies to continue to put some upward pressure on mortgage rates. However, with the Fed signaling a potential pause in rate hikes, a downward shift in mortgage rates may soon come. While mortgage rates are directly impacted by U.S. Treasury bond yields, the Fed's actions to contain inflation by hiking the federal funds rate tend to push mortgage rates upward.

Let's take a closer look at the more detailed predictions from economists as of June 2023:

Compass U.S. region president, Neda Navab: "There have been signals that mortgage interest rates may be at or near their peak, given recent encouraging news around inflation and a corresponding drop in the U.S. Treasury yields that help set mortgage rates. A sustained drop could push mortgage rates into the 5% range late in the second quarter or in the second half of 2023, but that's definitely not guaranteed."

Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): "Long-term rates have already peaked. We expect that 30-year mortgage rates will end 2023 at 5.2%."

National Association of Realtors (NAR) senior economist and director of forecasting, Nadia Evangelou: "If inflation continues to slow down—and this is what we expect for 2023—mortgage rates may stabilize below 6% in 2023."

Freddie Mac: Forecasts the average 30-year mortgage rate to start at 6.6% in Q1 2023 and end up at 6.2% in Q4 2023.

Fed Watch: Looking ahead, all eyes are on the upcoming July 26th Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to the CME Group, 94.9% of forecasters predict an increase in interest rates, while 5.1% predict rates will remain the same. None of the forecasters expect rates to decrease.

even as the market changes, real estate is STILL a great investment...

my friend Jon Humig at Prosperity Mortgage has announced any buyer who closes before March 2023, can refi by 2025 free of fees... Date the Rate, Marry the home.... let me help...

Dear Renter Friends....

People don’t buy or sell homes for fun. People have a purpose to go through the sometimes difficult process. You may need/want to move. You may have an empty nest and want to use “Equity/Appreciation” to travel or other pursuits. You may be changing jobs or occupations. You may be growing a family and need more bedrooms. Whatever your purpose is, I high recommend a local professional to help guide you.

Many people seem to react to National News to educate themselves. Would you search National Weather to get your local weather report? Even in the State of Arizona, there’s a very significant difference in Real Estate conditions between Phoenix and Tucson.

The economy and interest rates recently have significantly impacted the market. Example: I’ve been working with a VA Buyer for about 8-9 months. Last spring we made Purchase Offers four times. 1. For $5K over list. 2. For $8K over list. 3. For $10K over list. 4. $20K over list. These homes were on the market for less than 3 days at best, and we did not once get a Counter Offer.

My client’s PreQual expired, so he disappeared from the market for a couple months to improve his financial position.

We started home shopping again this fall. We’ve made offers on 3 homes. Some sellers are not adjusting and are having difficulty selling. Many homes have been on the market for over 2 months. A couple days ago, we agreed with a seller on a Purchase Contract for $33K UNDER list.

If you like mild winters and Vitamin D, the Sonoran Desert has lots of sun and no hurricanes. Call me!

Over 15,700 American children are diagnosed with cancer every year, and 38 kids die every week... I don't solicit funds for causes very often, but I am this time. I've pledged to ride 200 miles in the month of Sept. to raise funds for Cancer. My goal is $500. PLEASE NOTE, THIS WEDNESDAY IS "KICK CANCER'S BUTT DAY". I have a donor who will match ALL CONTRIBUTIONS on Wednesday. I'm looking for one in ten of my fakebook friends to donate $5... pleeeaasse be one of my one in ten friends on Wednesday. If one out of ten of my friends pledge $5 on Wednesday and that is matched by my donor, I will exceed my goal by $200. Be my hero on Wednesday... click on the link... https://greatcyclechallenge.com/Riders/SteveRoth1?fbclid=IwAR2Diu4anqupamu60vYnvuA4cBDwZptXeciegZ_NTlD_1yWGcdFaT6JLUj0

Support My 200 Mile Ride to Fight Kids' Cancer! Steve Roth is riding in the Great Cycle Challenge. Please sponsor Steve now to end childhood cancer and save little lives. View Steve's fundraising page!

My “Buyers” keep reminding me it’s a “Sellers” market, so they’re going to wait till the market turns. Huh?... turn were?... “turn to a Buyer’s Market!”. Um… we have 9.1% inflation rate lead by Food, Rent, and Gasoline. “THE BUBBLE IS GOING TO BURST LIKE IN 2008!!!” First, the bubble ISN’T going to burst. The market is significantly different than in 2008. Second, due to low inventory (at least in Tucson), you’ll be waiting a LOOOOONG time for the market to “turn”. Consider turning yourself into a “Seller” by buying a home. If you had bought a home in 2018 at the median price point ($210,000) you be sitting on a home in 2022 valued at over $357,000… AND YOU’D be a “Seller”. Due to low inventory, the experts expect home appreciation to continue. As a “Renter”, you’re just contributing to your landlord’s profit.

Blue is historical Mortgage Interest Rates, Gray is Inflation...

Build you own equity rather than your landlords...

Buying or Selling Long Realty has more resources to find you a home, or find sellers for your home...

Over the past two years, that pandemic housing boom has seen U.S. home prices soar 34.4%. That tops the biggest two-year jump in home prices (21.2%) posted in the run-up to the 2008 housing bubble. How could that happen? A perfect storm. In an effort to save the economy, policymakers juiced it during the pandemic with unprecedented fiscal and monetary support, including pushing mortgage rates to all-time lows. Those low rates were too good a deal for well-paid professionals who saw their jobs transition to remote to pass up, as they drove up home values in markets like Boise and Austin. They certainly had competition: The pandemic coincided with the five-year window (between 2019 and 2023) when millennials born during the generation's five largest birth years (between 1989 and 1993) hit the peak first-time homebuying age of 30. To top it off, a stock market at all-time highs during much of the pandemic had investors flush with cash and ready to park it into real estate.
But we could soon see that boom finally come to a close.

https://fortune.com/2022/05/26/the-cooling-housing-market-enters-into-the-great-deceleration/?utm_campaign=all%7Call%7Call%7Call%7Cmkt%7Ccurbio%7Cemail_newsletter_q2_2022%7C17%2FAPR%2F2022&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=215415115&utm_content=215415115&utm_source=hs_email

Median Sold Price for Tucson Meto: (Year End ~ Dec.)
2018: $205,000
2019: $232,000
2020: $274,579
2021: $349,082
Tucson continues to be one of the hottest markets in the country over the first quarter of 2022 with double digit appreciation...

Hi there! Welcome to my Long Real Estate Website and thank you for stopping by. Long Real Estate believes in building life-long relationships based on honesty, integrity and trust. I am proud to be a part of an organization whose values align with mine and those values are what I offer to you throughout every transaction. Long Realty has 23.9% of the Real Estate Market in Southern Arizona which is nearly twice the Market share of the second place brokerage. This gives Long an advantage in finding buyers, and closing listings faster and more secure.
https://sroth.longrealty.com
I am a member of our Local, State and National REALTOR associations. I'm also a member of the Multi-Listing Service, which gives me access to thousands of homes in our area. As a member of these Associations I am able to show you any home For Sale, with any company. Being a member also allows for me to have access to data and information, to help stay competitive, in today’s fast paced Real Estate market.
In addition, Long Real Estate's technology and web-based platform allows for me to communicate to buyers and sellers anytime and anywhere.
I am here to help you with any and all of your home buying and selling needs. Whether you are looking to purchase land, a forever home, an investment property, build, or downsize, I can assist you. And when the time comes to sell your home, I can help with that too.
https://rumble.com/vfu9ub-real-estate-southern-arizona.html
https://www.luxuryhomelocator.com/arizona/tucson/real-estate-agent/steven-roth

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