Hargun Kaur

Newspaper article from the Financial review

International student bubble bursts as visa crackdown bites

The number of people in Australia on student visas has finally turned around from its high point of 660,000 in September, indicating that Australia’s migration bubble has begun to burst.

The number of student visa holders living in Australia fell by 50,000 from a record 664,178 at the end of September to 612,099 at the end of November.

And while November witnessed yet another monthly record in offshore visa applications, fewer were approved than a year earlier.

The migration bubble appears to have finally burst as numbers start to decrease. Tamara Voninski

Although the majority of the decline will be students returning home before they come back for another semester of study in early 2024, visa approvals are lower than a year earlier.

The data suggests that Australia has hit peak migration, as The Australian Financial Review revealed in November, and has now begun a downward trajectory.

The government has been under intense pressure from voters and backbenchers over the impact that historically high migration levels are having on the rental market. Its major review of the migration system released in December contained a raft of reforms designed to w**d out non-genuine students and return integrity to the visa system.

However, the turnaround will put pressure on university budgets, which are also suffering from sluggish demand from domestic students.

Abul Rizvi, a migration expert, said 3000 fewer visas were granted based on offshore applications in November. That equates to an 11.7 per cent fall.

The greatest falls were from Nepal, down 32 per cent, Colombia, 26 per cent, and the Philippines and India, both down by more than 200 applications.

Mr Rizvi said that was offset to some degree by a spike in demand, particularly from China (up 46 per cent, to 7991) and Vietnam (39 per cent), which is probably linked to the government’s announcement that students will be required to have higher English-language proficiency to qualify for a visa.

He said the reasons behind the lower approval rates were not clear, although greater scrutiny of applications particularly from some countries and some regions was most likely one explanation.

“The government must find a way to reduce demand, particularly from low-performing students who are destined for immigration limbo in Australia,” Mr Rizvi said.

“While the planned increase in English-language requirements will dampen demand somewhat, this effect may be temporary as students improve their English-language skills and resit English language tests, particularly as IELTS [the International English Language Testing System] now allows students to resit a single skill element rather than resitting the whole test.”

However, the government’s decision to apply far greater scrutiny to student visa applications from people already in Australia would start to have an impact on numbers early in the new year.

While onshore visa applications increased from 10,204 in November 2022 to 12,408 in November last year, the approval rate fell from 99.6 per cent to 90.1 per cent.

Onshore visa applications have been strongly implicated in nefarious behaviours of students, colleges and education agents rorting the visa system for non-genuine students to access the jobs market.

Mr Rizvi said he also expected to see an increase in visa cancellations as the new rules are introduced and the Department of Home Affairs scrutinises visa applicants more closely.

International students have returned en masse but numbers should start to moderate in the coming months.

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Albanese Government still pushing to mend Coalition's student visa mess From 1 July 2023, the Albanese Government belatedly started tightening the student visa policy it inherited from the Coalition.

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Labor Government's 2024 challenge to restore visa integrity Despite the Government’s $160 million package to address the massive growth in asylum seekers, November 2023 data suggests little change in recent trends.

New Ministerial Direction on Student visa processing priorities….

Immigration and citizenship Website Find out about Australian visas, immigration and citizenship.

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Migrants scapegoated as cause of Australia’s housing crisis a ‘disturbing’ trend, advocates say Housing and welfare groups call on Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton to show leadership amid rise in ‘nonsense’ rhetoric

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Education sector warned amid migration overhaul Welcome to The Australian's live politics blog, Politics Now, covering the latest from Canberra and around the country.

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Universities oppose caps, levies on overseas students amid plan to slash migration Australia has 650,000 overseas students due to a surge in arrivals after the pandemic.

Clare O’Neil to unveil smaller migration program and tougher rules for temporary visa holders

Australia will have a smaller overall migration intake under the landmark strategy the Albanese government will launch on ­Monday, with an emphasis on new pathways for permanent settlers and highly skilled workers, as well as tougher rules to eject the temporary visa holders the nation does not need to stay.

Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil will set out a mechanism to manage a more orderly and predictable migration inflow over the medium term, to help state governments in the planning of infrastructure and social services, with less emphasis on the current settings overwhelmingly driven by foreign student demand.

As well, officials say the strategy will simplify and make the goals of migration more coherent, after a wide-ranging review led by former top federal public servant Martin Parkinson, published in April, declared the visa system was broken and neither meeting the interests of locals or the migrants themselves.

A government source confirmed next week’s mid-year ­budget update would show a ­reduction in net overseas migration in coming years, to reflect recent visa vigilance and the new policy blueprint.

The new blueprint will articulate a clearer rationale for the permanent program, currently set at 190,000 places, but which drives less than two-fifths of the overall current influx.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says responsible economic management has been a “defining feature” of the Albanese… government this year. “We are working for Australia to take the pressure off Australians, to strengthen Medicare and to build a future made in Australia in a world of churn and change,” Mr More
Federal government sources are confident a recent crackdown on pandemic-era visas for temporary workers, a higher rate of visa refusal for foreign students, and fewer visa extensions for working holiday makers will suppress the number of arrivals in coming years.

Already the rate of visa refusal for foreign students is on the rise, particularly for applicants from high-growth countries where ­immigration officials have detected fraudulent documentation and where it is suspected that the right to work, rather than study, is the primary motivation.

As well, the federal government is ending a pandemic-era visa for about 120,000 temporary workers and is addressing longstanding visa-integrity issues that have undermined public confidence and led to worker ­exploitation by unscrupulous ­operators.

The Albanese government has come under fire from its political opponents over the surprise population boom, claiming Labor has lost control of borders and is effectively running a “Big Australia” migration program by stealth.

The post-pandemic population boom has caught Treasury and monetary officials napping, producing a spike in home values and rents, and exposing debt-laden states to unrelenting pressure on services.

The influx of 172,000 foreigners with work rights in the first four months of this financial year, or 10,000 people a week, is hindering the ­Reserve Bank’s ability to read the underlying health of the economy and raising fears it could inflame homegrown inflation, which is running at just under 5 per cent or twice its three-decade average and the midpoint of the mandated target.

But the migrant-led population surge is keeping aggregate output growth in the economy in positive territory and easing skills shortages for employers in areas such as hospitality.

Treasury’s May estimate for the net migrant inflow in 2022-23 of 401,700 has been blown out of the water, as a record number of students, backpackers and workers on temporary visas hit these shores, and those already here were able to extend their stays to help employers fill a record high level of post-Covid vacancies.

In the year to March, net migration was 454,400, with new figures for the June quarter to be released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Experts predict the 2022-23 ­financial year produced a migrant inflow of close to 500,000, with the record influx continuing over the winter and autumn.

Treasury’s net overseas migration estimate in May for the current financial year is 316,000.

Last week, the ABS projected the population rose by 0.7 per cent in the September quarter, or 190,000 people, with migration likely accounting for about 80 per cent of the increase or 152,000.

But according to a source familiar with the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, in the latter part of the budget’s four-year planning period, and beyond into the medium term, net overseas migration will be scaled back under the influence of the changes to the visa system to below recent long-run averages of around 230,000 a year.

According to the Department of Home Affairs, since the start of July, the number of people here on student visas has increased by 104,000, or ­almost a fifth, to stand at a high of 673,000.

Other figures from the department show that in the four months to the end of October, the student visa approval rate for ­primary applicants fell to 79.6 per cent, from 85.7 per cent last financial year.

In the decade prior to the pandemic, the visa grant rate never fell below 90 per cent.

(Source: The Australian Newspaper)

The tightening of student visas has been most pronounced for the higher education sector, where the grant rate fell from 96 per cent during the pandemic to 80.4 per cent in the first four months of this financial year.

In a press conference in Sydney on Saturday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said his government had a “plan to fix migration” and would announce a new migration strategy this week to bring migration back to “sustainable levels”, noting parts of the migration system that had been “abused”.

“People are coming here, enrolling in courses that don’t really add substantially to either their skills base or to the national interest here. So, it’s not in the interests of our neighbours, nor is it in the interests of Australia, that there not be a crackdown on this,” Mr Albanese said.

“We have a plan to fix migration by ensuring Australia can get the skilled workers Australia needs, but putting an end to any abuse and any rorts,”

He said there was always going to be a jump in migration numbers post-COVID, and the population figures were lower than those projected before the borders were shut.

Albanese promises net migration fall to pre-pandemic levels Should Labor fail to rein in net migration as it promises, it may face the political consequences at the ballot box, writes Dr Abul Rizvi.

Migration review to fast-track visa processing for the regions

Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil. The government will move to fast track visa processing times for migrants moving to regional Australia and has pledged to work closely with the states and territories to ensure population is better targeted over the long term as part of a major shake-up to the migration system.

Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil. The government will move to fast track visa processing times for migrants moving to regional Australia and has pledged to work closely with the states and territories to ensure population is better targeted over the long term as part of a major shake-up to the migration system.

The Albanese government will move to fast track visa processing times for migrants moving to regional Australia as it pledged to work closely with the states and territories to ensure population is better targeted over the long term as part of a major shake-up to Australia’s migration system.

The changes – set to be unveiled on Monday as part of Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil’s response to the migration review – are designed to meet critical workforce needs in regional Australia and help supercharge regional communities.

However, Labor has ignored calls to limit the use of the working holiday maker program despite concern the scheme is a key driver of exploitation with visa holders previously subject to underpayment, sexual harassment and workplace safety concerns.

The government has instead pledged to conduct a further review of the program and broader migration settings to ensure it “can better meet regional needs while not adding to worker exploitation”.

Sky News host James Macpherson says Albanese is looking to "crack down" on migration to focus on bringing in skilled workers. “Labor is looking to seize back control of the narrative on migration,” Mr Macpherson said. “After the detainee debacle of last month. “They now say Australia needs to crack down More
It comes after an interim migration system review led by former public service chief Martin Parkinson recommended that Labor end the ability for travellers to extend the visa beyond 12 months if the worker has spent 88 days employed in regional Australia.

The review said the primary focus of the visa should be for “cultural exchange” noting the visa plays an important role in some of Australia’s international relationships.

Farming groups have been fiercely opposed to any restrictions being placed on the visa because backpackers had become a critical part of the nation’s food system, while unions have been calling for the scheme to be abolished to protect workers from exploitation.

The government’s response more broadly underscored the need for a co-ordinated approach to workforce needs in the regions with regional Australia’s population forecast to grow by 0.8 per cent per year to 2031-31 compared to 1.2 per cent for capital cities.

It noted 2016 census data which indicated only about 14 per cent of migrants live outside capital cities compared to 34 per cent of the general population despite the range of existing place based policies.

The government also deepened its commitment to increasing skilled migration to help meet labour shortages in regional Australia.

“Migration can play a powerful role in revitalising regional communities and meeting critical workforce needs in regional Australia,” it said. “Regional migration works for migrants and for long-term regional development when supported by the policy levers that make migration successful, such as government planning, infrastructure investment and economic opportunities.”

The Albanese government has also committed to plan the nation’s migration intake over a longer-term horizon with better collaboration with states and territories to ensure it is best targeted to the areas which need it.

Labor will extend its planning period beyond 12 months in a bid to plan most effectively in the national interest and fill critical skills shortages such as in the technology and care economy.

“The existing short term planning approach for the permanent migration program does not effectively target migrants with the skills we need to meet current and emerging national challenges,” the response said. “This is especially important for regional Australia where the challenges that Australia faces as a nation are often experienced more acutely.”

Committee for Economic Development of Australia chief executive Melinda Cilento said Labor’s commitment to long-term migration planning with the states provided a “welcome and critical missing ingredient”.

“This will enable better long-term planning and investment in housing and infrastructure and should send clear signals about the scale and composition of our migration program,” she said.

“As current debates show, this is crucial to maintaining community confidence in and support for our migration system.”

(Source: financial Review newspaper)

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‘Non-genuine foreign students to be w**ded out….

A year after the Albanese government declared some international students could stay for an additional two years after graduation, Labor has backflipped on the promise as part of efforts to trim the number of temporary migrants in Australia.

New measures aimed at w**ding out non-genuine students who use the study visa system to access the jobs market will include higher English-language proficiency requirements and more scrutiny of applicants with greater priority given to those who enrol in high-quality, high-fee universities and colleges.

International students will undergo far more scrutiny when applying for a visa to study in Australia.

The reforms from Labor’s migration review, released on Sunday, come after other changes announced in the past couple of months aimed at curbing exploitative and corrupt behaviours by some agents, colleges and employers. It has been predicted that up to 200 private vocational colleges could go broke as a result of those changes, with many more undoubtedly at risk due to the additional measures.

However, it was only last September that Education Minister Jason Clare announced that some international students would be given an additional two years to stay and work in Australia after finishing their degree – as a means of increasing the number who go on to become permanent residents.

The policy reversal appears to be because over 50 per cent of graduate visa holders are in low-skill jobs that would not be considered an asset when applying for residency.

There is also evidence that thousands of graduate visa holders reapply for another study visa once their time is up to lengthen their stay in Australia, known as visa-hopping.

However, those in high-demand skill areas, such as engineering, can apply for a new ‘skills in demand’ visa or permanent skilled visa under the changes.

The migration review says at least some of the extraordinary growth in international students has been propelled by “non-genuine students and unscrupulous education providers” who have subverted and exploited loopholes in the visa system.

A genuine student test will be introduced that will consider “the circumstances of the applicant, such as their academic or career progression and the usefulness of the intended study to their future career prospects”.

Additional scrutiny will be applied to all visa applicants, particularly those applying to providers and universities deemed high-risk by the Department of Home Affairs.

The tougher rules for foreign students, and the ending of special COVID visas that was announced in August, will drive migration back down to “normal” pre-COVID levels.

Course switching to stay
The number of students switching to lower-level, cheaper courses to prolong their stay has proliferated over the past year. There are now 150,000 international students on a second or third visa, the review says, with the vocational sector the hub of most nefarious activity.

Six of the 10 most popular vocational courses for international students are diplomas in business, leadership and management – courses with deliver little practical skills and are in low-demand among employers.

Experts say this has led to a spike in new colleges that have been approved or are waiting to be so in just the last year. They say a number of these and existing colleges, which have become known as ‘ghost schools’ have few teaching facilities and exist merely to channel student visa holders into the workforce.

“It is incumbent upon the government to provide these migrants with clarity about their future. International students and graduates make up the largest share of ‘permanently temporary’ migrants with 108,000 having lived in Australia for five years or more,” the review reads.

(Source: FInancial Review newspaper)

High-paid workers fast-tracked as migration boom fades….

Labor has resisted political pressure to slash Australia’s immigration intake and instead tightened the screws on foreign students in a bid to drive migration back down to “normal” pre-COVID levels.

The government also promised business a visa system that will grant approvals in seven days to highly paid overseas staff as it shifts the system in favour of skilled workers in areas with genuine shortages, and away from low-skilled work and students.

The immigration program will remain demand driven, but should be significantly easier for most employers to navigate.

Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil said the blueprint, to be announced Monday, was part of the government’s commitment to “returning migration levels back to normal”.

The plan comes amid growing public concern about the record-high rate of arrivals, which Treasury estimates hit 510,000 in 2022-23. While the government says that surge was a one-off, as students and holidaymakers return after being locked out, Treasury has been surprised by the speed at which the temporary program has bounced back.

The mid-year economic and fiscal outlook on Wednesday will forecast net overseas migration to fall to 375,000 people this financial year and 250,000 in 2024-25.

Actions taken by the government since the May budget will mean that 185,000 fewer net overseas arrivals will arrive over the next four years than would have otherwise been the case, according to analysis by the Home Affairs Department.

This includes putting an end to the COVID-era pandemic event visa in September, which had granted 120,000 people unlimited work rights for 12 months.

“For all Australians, it means a better-planned migration system, aiming to strengthen the community you live in and to improve your living standards,” Ms O’Neil said.

But the migration strategy shows the government has largely spared the temporary skilled worker system as it seeks to put a lid on overseas arrivals. The program will remain demand driven, and should be significantly easier for most employers to navigate after the implementation of the strategy.

In a grand bargain between unions and business, the plan will increase the protections offered to the lowest-paid migrants, while making it significantly easier for employers to hire middle-to-high paid skilled foreigners, amid a global race for talent.

As part of the overhaul, the Albanese government will late next year create a new visa stream for employers to bring in migrants earning more than $135,000 in an application process that will take just seven days end-to-end.

All temporary skilled workers will be able to switch employers from late next year and have a pathway to stay in Australia permanently as part of the shake-up.

Three-tier visa scheme
The strategy’s signature action is the creation of a three-tiered temporary skilled migration program that will offer drastically faster processing times for employers to help Australia compete in the global race for talent.

The system will be underpinned by a new uncapped “skills in demand” visa with three separate pathways depending on the salary a migrant will earn in Australia.

At the top end is a “specialist skills pathway” for employers bringing in foreign workers earning at least $135,000, whose visas will be approved in a median time of just seven days.

“These migrants are prime candidates to choose other countries if we do not provide competitive visa offerings and better compete in the global race for talent,” the strategy said.

But as foreshadowed by The Australian Financial Review, highly paid tradies, machinery operators, drivers and labourers will be excluded from the fast-track pathway amid pressure from the union movement.

Sources consulted in the overhaul had warned the carve out would have an outsized impact on the mining industry, making it harder to bring in jobs like machinery installers who come to Australia temporarily to train local workers.

Instead, skilled tradespeople would need to apply through the new “core skills” visa stream, where a data-driven occupation list administered by Jobs and Skills Australia will assess whether their skills were in demand.

The core pathway applies to migrants who will earn between $70,000 and $135,000, and will make up the bulk of Australia’s temporary skilled migration intake.

A major question mark remains over the operation of the bottom-tier of the system, which will encompass workers earning less than $70,000.

The strategy says more work will be done next year on developing the so-called “essential skills” pathway, which the government is leaning toward limiting to low-paid jobs in the worker starved aged and disability care industries.

The pathway will contain heavy union-oversight, be sector-specific, and places will be capped.

Salary thresholds indexed
The salary thresholds for each of the three pathways will be indexed annually to average weekly ordinary time earnings.

Unlike the current temporary migration system, migrants will be able to switch employers to reduce the risk of worker exploitation.

To make mobility palatable to bosses, the government will explore a model whereby fees paid by employers, like the $7200 Skilling Australians Fund levy, are incurred in small chunks at regular intervals rather than upfront.

To facilitate job-switching and greater oversight of employers, the government will develop a public register of businesses that are approved to sponsor temporary migrants.

The register will include the name of approved employers, how many temporary skilled workers they employ, and what occupations they work in.

Labour market testing will also be overhauled. Employers will no longer be required to advertise positions to locals on the government-run Workforce Australia website before applying to bring in a foreign worker.

Tighter rules for students
The strategy marks a continuation of the Albanese government’s moves to tighten access to international student visas, which have largely underpinned the surge in migration over the past year.

The government has backflipped on an earlier promise to allow international students to stay in Australia for an additional two years after graduation.

The policy reversal appears to be because over 50 per cent of graduate visa holders are in low-skill jobs that would not be considered an asset when applying for residency.

The strategy also includes new measures aimed at curtailing visa-hopping by students and w**ding out non-genuine students who use the student visa system to access the jobs.

A genuine student test will be introduced that will take into account “the circumstances of the applicant, such as their academic or career progression and the usefulness of the intended study to their future career prospects”.

The migration review says at least some of the stratospheric growth in international students, who account for around 60 per cent of all temporary migrants, has been propelled by “non-genuine students and unscrupulous education providers” who have subverted and exploited loopholes in the visa system.

The reforms come in the wake of other changes announced in the past couple of months aimed at curbing exploitative and corrupt behaviours by some agents, colleges and employers. It has been predicted that up to 200 private vocational colleges could go broke as a result of those changes, with many more undoubtedly at risk due to the additional measures.

Points overhaul
The strategy commits to reforming the points test, which is used by self-nominated temporary migrants to apply for permanent residence.

After the migration review found the current points test rewarded people for attributes that had little bearing on the economic dividend they would provide to Australia, the strategy flags a reformed version that would clearly reward skill over perseverance.

International student graduates working in skilled jobs would have more opportunity to become permanent under the revamped test, while those graduates not working in skilled jobs would find it tougher.

The government will also consider a new “talent and innovation” visa to lure in migrants who can make an outsized contribution to Australia

“This could create a single, streamlined pathway to attract relatively small numbers of highly talented migrants to Australia, such as high performing entrepreneurs, major investors and global researchers,” the strategy said.

It would effectively replace the much-criticised global talent program and business innovation and investment program (BIIP), which were both designed to attract entrepreneurs but had fundamental structural shortcomings.

Research by the Grattan Institute estimated the average BIIP recipient cost taxpayers $120,000 over their lifetime in Australia, since applicants were mostly older migrants who were less likely to work and pay taxes.

The Coalition, led by shadow immigration minister Dan Tehan, has sought to capitalise on community concern over rapid rates of migration, accusing Labor of losing control of the program.

In a nod to those concerns, the strategy also commits to planning migration over the longer-term and coordinating with states and territories on infrastructure and housing.

Describing the current migration system as broken, Ms O’Neil said the government will reduce the number of visas from 100 to 80, with further consolidation likely among programs that are no longer receiving applications or are duplicative.

(Source: Financial review newspaper)

485 Graduate visa English requirements rise to 6.5.

New migration strategy to clamp down on migrants living in Australia in a 'permanently temporary' state Minimum English language requirements for international students will be increased, and more restrictions will be applied to stop onshore "visa hopping" as the federal government sets its new migration strategy.