Craig Allen On-Air

There are storms, superstorms and super-sized storms and this one coming up can fit in any of these categories. Hundreds of millions of people under some kind of advisory, watch or warning. All 4 seasons represented from tornadoes to blizzards to squall lines and floods. Please prepare for your safety.

These set ups usually produce higher rain totals inland as the very wet S/SE winds rise up the terrain. Unfortunately, this is where the ground is most saturated and contains the excess moisture from melting snow. The flood threat is moderate to perhaps major for and near many of the same rivers and adjoining towns that have barely dried out from last month. Plus 20-40 mph winds will result in additional problems.

The coast (NYC/LI/NJ shore/ LI Soundshores)may not get as much rain but winds will frequently gust to damaging speeds. A few thousand feet above the surface, the wind will be screaming at 80-100 mph! Any downward momentum (be it from convection or heavy rain etc) and surface winds could exceed 60 mph.

This is troubling on its own but also increases the salt water flood threat. At high tide, low-lying coastal communities may be under 1 to 2- 1/2 feet of water. 15-20 foot waves from offshore will damage dunes and beaches

On a better note, the worst of this won't be excessively long, perhaps 2-4 hours though total storm time will run 8-12 hours.

No shortage of 'weather' across the lower 48, for the next 48 hours...and more. All 4 seasons are represented across the US with alerts for just about every weather type imagineable.
For our area, the 3 biggest threats are:
⚠️ Fresh water flooding. 1-3" of rain/ Melting snow/Saturated ground. Streams and rivers could reach moderate flood srtage or higher, similar to last month
⚠️ Salt water flooding. Tides will run 2 to 3' above normal and inundate many coastal communities at high tide. Beach erosion likely. Ocean waves 15-20 ft. LI Sound 6-10 ft.
⚠️Wind Damage. 20-40 mph winds everywhere with possible gusts over 60 mph, especially near the coast. Power outages likely

Constant coverage and updates on WCBS Newsradio 880. If you like music with your meteorology, I will also be on 101.1 WCBS-FM and CBS News Radio

Last round of precipitation to continue into this afternoon before moving away. As of 10:am, wet snow continues in suburbs N & W of the City. Additional minor accumulations of a coating to an inch or so where temperatures are holding near 32. Even NYC/boros and parts of LI could see a change to wet snow for a while before ending.
A 998mb Low has now made the right turn, east of BLM and south of ISP,. It will strengthen a bit more and this has cut off any warm air advection. In fact, it is now pulling down colder air, thus the possibility of seeing the nasty, cold rain and fog change to a bit of snow near the coast.
Next up is the wicked storm for late Tue into early Wed. More on that in a later post but be prepared for potentially damaging winds, coastal flooding at high tide and river flooding from heavy rain/melting snow.

on WCBS Newsradio 880

3 storms likely over the next week. First one brings significant snow tonight, inland; mainly rain for coastal towns and cities.
Second one on Tuesday could be a big wind driven rainstorm with flooding. Another possible at the end of the week.

CBS2 back on locally at 9am with Andrea Grymes and

Nice to see some continuity and consistency amongst the major forecast models. Far from exact but good agreement in the storm making a bend up the Atlantic seaboard then getting blocked from travelling too far north, upon reaching the NJ shore. From that point, it makes a right hand jog and heads towards the New England coastal waters before getting as far north as LI.
This is where the biggest question arises. How far up the NJ coast/ how close does it get to LI before the right-hand bend? That will determine just how far north the rain/snow line advances. The right semi-circle of the storm is the warmer side. Easterly winds off an ocean of mid 40's will keep air temps above freezing. The upper left portion of the Low about 10-20 miles ahead of it, is the cold side and will produce mostly snow. The track as posted, explains the reasoning behind the forecast.
So, mostly rain for the coast (could start and end as wet snow).
A few inches along I-95 (+/- 5 to 10 miles and might be slushy or even washed off roads
N of I-80/W of I-287/ N of TZB/ N of Merritt CT-15, it is mostly snow and amounts will ramp up with distance inland.

Follow along:
CBS New York /CBS2 Sat 6-11:am
WCBS Newsradio 880 Sunday 6-10:am

PS- A wind-driven rain storm is in the works for Tue/Wed next week. That with melting snow could cause river flooding ahead. That's for another post after we get finished with this but stay alert !!

on WCBS Newsradio 880
The first Winter Storm Watches are now issued and cover all of the interior, approximately west of I-287/ near and north of I-80/ TZB/ Merritt Pkwy. Highest amounts up towards I-84 into New England.
Afternoon maps didn't change the track too much but a few models got hooked into 'backside energy' resulting in rapid intensification, slower movement and a tug of cold air back into the system. This results in a parting thump of snow, even down to the City and coast on Sunday. If this solution becomes likely, we may break the snow drought on the back end of the storm. The front end would still be mainly rain near the coast.
Generalities are easy to predict. Getting closer and needing to get down to the nitty-gritty details on some of these systems can be H-E- double hockey sticks (thank you Ned Flanders 😁 😈 )
So for now let's leave it at "significant", "plowable", "impactful" (A Watch generally means 6"+) and know it is still fluid. I told ya, I wouldn't feel confident yet. Hopefully tomorrow!!!
One thing for sure is ski resorts in the mid and upper Hudson Valley and most of New England are going to love this much needed wintry boost

One of the main reasons not to post or view eye-candy snowfall maps or boldly forecast amounts more than 3 days from a storm. In fact, I doubt I'll have confidence in where the rain/snow line will firmly set up until later Friday! There is so much at play here, from interaction of upper dynamics right down to surface water and resultant air temperatures.
As in similar situations though, the best chance for impactful, plowable snow is going to be N&W of 287/TZB/Merritt. As for me, sitting on the south shore of L.I., I may be lucky to get an inch of snow, washed away by heavy rain. A crazy-tight gradient setting up so that's why a 25 mile track difference is important, let alone 150!

Please get your info from trustworthy sources. I have many, many colleagues and co-workers that fit that standard....and OF COURSE WCBS Newsradio 880 and CBS New York 👌

(Graphic credit to NWS-BOX & OKX

An impactful coastal storm is possible late Saturday into Sunday. With this system still 3+ days away, there is still a lot of uncertainty around what will occur. Forecasting the rain/snow line and amounts will become more clear over the next day or two.

[Image via US National Weather Service Boston MA]

HELLO 2024 !!!!
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Andrea Grymes and I will be back on air on CBS New York /CBS2 at 9 after Cbs This Morning Saturday
Santa brought sleds for Andrea's kids but she wants to know "where's the snow?". And all I can say is they'll have to sit in the garage a while longer. But at least the next few days will feel more like winter.

Hey Student Weather Nuts and Lovers 😄
Great opportunity here to work alongside some great folks at NWS/OKX

Are you a student or do you know someone studying meteorology who wants to learn more about the operations of a local weather service office? We are now seeking student volunteers for Summer 2024!

Find out more here: https://www.weather.gov/okx/students

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Christmas Blessings and Peace for all

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‼️ COAST- HIGH WIND WARNING, 50-65MPH
INLAND- WIND ADV,. 20-40 MPH
CLOSURE/RESTRICTIONS ON MOST BRIDGES
‼️ WIDESPREAD FLOODING- HEAVIEST AMOUNTS INLAND (3-6")
‼️ PSBL MOD TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING FOR NEXT HIGH TIDE
‼️ DOWNED TREES; GROWING POWER OUTAGES
‼️ WORST OF IT- NOW THROUGH 8-11 AM (SW TO NE)

CAN YOU STAY HOME? WORK FROM HOME? PLEASE DO SO !
Live update all morning WCBS Newsradio 880

A 'Must Post' to give these guys all the credit they are due. In my first go'round at WCBS-TV back in the 90's and early 2000's, I had the honor to work directly with several of these wonderful folks. I can't thank them enough for the knowledge I gained and how much they taught me in conversation and just by watching them work. 'TV' is very different compared to WCBS-AM.

You kept CBS2 running through good days and bad. Now it's time for your rewards. Wishing you all the best in your next chapter of enjoying all that is deserved.

Haynes- I hope I catch you again someday, waiting on the LIRR/ RVC platform so we can travel into the City and swap a few good TV stories.

Congratulations WCBS retirees! Friday was a bittersweet day for us here at CBS New York as we say goodbye to nine of our colleagues who are retiring. Congratulations to Mark Bowllan, Ben C...

Smiles for today's weather. But big changes on the way. Red Alert late Sunday into Monday. Details on just how stormy it will get on CBS2 now til 11 and streaming all day

Great day today! ☀️ Almost as good tomorrow. 🌤 Potent storm moving in on Sunday into Monday 🌧☔️💨🌊
Current projected track up the east coast is inland; west of I-95. We'll all get at least 1-3" of rain and winds of 20-30 mph. But this track would result in strongest winds (30-50+ mph) for the coast and heaviest rain amounts inland (3"+) Tidal flooding is also possible during high tides Sunday into Monday until the SSE wind shifts to NW. Alerts⚠️ for all hazards will likely be posted for the whole region
The usual advice- tighten up the Christmas lights and secure the inflatables- or deflate them ⛄️. You've got all day Saturday to check things out. Prepare for road and airport delays as we get into the holiday week.
Below are very useful, informative NWS graphics. Please look over the information.
Listen to WCBS Newsradio 880 through the weekend for updates and I'll be at CBS New York CBS2- tomorrow, 6-11am

The mass transit answer to congestion pricing. On some days, I'll bet this is faster than the train or your car !
Transit on the 8's on WCBS Newsradio 880 😄😂

Look Up ⬆️ ⬆️ 🌠🌠 Clear sky
Geminid meteor shower peaks tonight.

Get Ready to Greet the Geminid Meteor Shower! The Geminids - the year's most intense meteor shower takes place in a dark, moonless sky with a forecast of more than 100 meteors per hour.

Pretty obvious where axis of round 1 heavy rain set up today. NJ shore to eastern boros/Western LI up into CT. Most places .5" to.75", but already approaching 1.5" here in Nassau.

A bit of a break to be followed by more intense rain and wind for most areas into the night

Christmas spirit at Beautiful, festive Milleridge Village on a mild night before the Sunday storm.
Now off to bed to be up and alert for what may be a long morning at work CBS2 starting at 6am

I happen to have a rare day off tomorrow! 🙂 I'll enjoy the weather along with the rest of you because Sunday and Sunday night are going to get 'ruff & tuff.
Posted, I completely agree with the NWS briefing (click on link below for details) which fully covers and explains what we can expect. Be sure to tie down the holiday decorations! There will be several hours of a wind-driven rain and perhaps an embedded squall-like thunderstorm. Again, the worst of this will be Sunday evening through the night into early Monday.
Stay updated on WCBS Newsradio 880 and John Elliot/ Vanessa Murdoch will cover tomorrow on CBS2. I'll be back Sunday morning on CBS New York starting at 6:am.
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/12082023_pm.pdf

https://jlcards.com/AR59TS (Click link to play)
Wishing EVERYONE light and best wishes throughout the year

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Another way to fight hunger. I'm for sale again ! 😃 And I'll spend a couple hours with you at the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) in Upton.
As in years past, this is one of the gifts offered by Audacy, Inc./ / which WCBS Newsradio 880 offered during our broadcast. This is the last 2 days to bid on this gift package.

https://www.charitybuzz.com/catalog_items/auction-tour-national-weather-service-office-with-wcbs-2797015?fbclid=IwAR2KnuxmO5TCRHzntWUHDwN3HXewIlp-VcQrrWbeUiVfXVbmNeoKma0CH50

Charitybuzz: Tour the National Weather Service Office with WCBS 880 Meteorologist Craig Allen in Upton, NY Enjoy an exclusive tour of the National Weather Service Office in Upton, New York, for you and a guest, with WCBS 880 meteorologist Craig Allen as ...

A picture is worth a thousand raindrops. This pretty much tells the story.
All day?
/CBS2 6 to 9:am and streaming all afternoon. With Andrea Grymes and williams.

You choose...should be easy. 🤔
Today-a lot of clouds but mild
Sunday- cooler and wet again.
7 day forecast including Hanukkah 🕎 on /CBS2, 6-11am with and

A Feel-Good moment that will last a long time. 😊

I have been Blessed to have a roof over my head and food on the table. And for the last 4+ decades, I've been fortunate enough to do the same for my family 😥 . But so many families cannot say the same. It's sad and shouldn't be 😩
My 'chai' will help a 'double-chai' (iykyk 😊👍 ) of families across L.I. this holiday season. It's the best feeling!

Thank you WCBS Newsradio 880, CBS News Radio and CBS New York/ CBS New York. Thank you Randi Shubin Dresner Barry at Island Harvest Food Bank for all you do.

In case you wanted to sleep late on the last day of the holiday, here's my morning forecast.....

First Alert Forecast: Mostly cloudy, low 50s, steady rain Sunday evening

That's a map filled with rain and wind, ready to give us a quick dousing tonight. Have the umbrella 🌂 for later today.
Tune in to /"CBS2 this morning ing and I'll time it out.
Hint: don't wait too long to head home
With and .mcnicholas.cbs

Part of the team keeping you 'in-the-know' this Thanksgiving holiday. Great people doing a great job.
I'll be back at 6:am to help you time out your travel plans with the approaching afternoon rain.
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