Midwest Storm Spotters League

Good warming on Thursday and Friday for all of southern Wisconsin. In fact, daily high temperatures should be 15-20 degrees above normal. Even more sunshine can be expected in the next two days.

-Winter System Friday Night-Sunday-

A system will affect portions of the region with a wintry mix and accumulating snow Friday night and Saturday. The best chance for accumulating snow is across portions of WI/MN/IA with impactful accumulations being possible. Some areas will start as rain and then transition to snow as cold enough air pushes in.

Temperatures are more of a factor with this setup than previously thought as guidance has trended a little warmer from the surface up, which makes this challenging with not just the snowfall amounts, but the impact the rain beforehand might have and potential onset melting. Please keep in mind that the system is just now reaching shore, so we haven't gotten a good sampling from the NWS office yet. Expect model guidance to shift around over the next couple of runs before being somewhat accurate.

The first snowfall forecast will be posted tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon.

Break out the sandals, three days of above normal temperatures will make it feel like mid-April outside today through Friday. Don't put the boots too far, seasonable temps return Saturday along with a chance for rain/light snow (best chances farther east/south).

‘Atmospheric River’ storm will eventually be a doozy around Michigan, Great Lakes region A quick wind-up of a storm now on the West Coast will bring Michigan an active weather pattern.

In the last 24 hrs the track for the storm system this weekend has trended farther north which means more rain than snow & Sunday is trending drier. Now we wait and see if the track shifts again the next day or two, but at least right now this is not looking like a big snow maker

-OUTDATED-

-Winter Storm Friday Night-Sunday-

The potential for a winter storm later this week continues to increase. Thus run-to-run inconsistency amongst model guidance, confidence is increasing in impactful snow Friday night through Sunday. The highest potential currently exists in portions of WI/IL/IA/KS/MO/NE. Rain or rain/snow is likely farther south. It is too early to talk snowfall amounts, but depending on what model guidance does over the next 24 hours, I might have a snowfall forecast map out tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon. As of now, some areas could see plowable snow.

Temperatures are expected to climb into the 50s for highs area wide by Friday afternoon. There is a chance for sprinkles and/or flurries Wednesday as the warmer air begins to push into the region. Cooler conditions are expected for the weekend as a storm system passes to the south of the area.

Anticipating when the first named winter storm will hit Northeast Wisconsin Winter storms are something we inevitably have to contend with in Northeast Wisconsin. Nearly a week into December, when can we expect our first named storm?

How much did you get?? Did you shovel or snow blow? Are you going to wait for it to melt?

Fresh snowfall for the Packers/Chiefs game tomorrow night 🏈☃️🏂

9 PM [12.02.23] SNOWFALL UPDATE
Forecast snowfall totals have increased for late tonight through Sunday afternoon. Snowfall amounts of 2-3" are now forecast across all of east-central WI & along the lakeshore areas. Locally higher amounts are also still possible in these areas.

-Snowfall Forecast Saturday Night-Sunday-

A storm system is currently tracking through the region where light snowfall accumulations are expected. The highest totals are expected in portions of IA/MO/IL/WI with 1-3" being possible. Some travel impacts are expected Sunday morning, but surface temperatures around freezing will allow the snow to struggle to accumulate on roadways. You can still expect some impacts when the moderate snow bands move though. The snow will quickly clear out Sunday southwest to northeast.

: We are monitoring the next weather maker for the second half of the weekend. There is a chance of snow showers from Wausau, south & east on Sunday. Any accumulations are expected to be light, but could produce slippery spots on the roads. Details: https://tinyurl.com/5bzzpt9j

****POST EXPIRED****

[5:00 PM] Scattered bursts of snow are moving southeast across portions of the area this evening. Some localized reductions in visibility to 1 mile or less and winds 30 to 40 mph will be possible. With falling temperatures, slick spots on roadways may also develop. Slow down and allow extra time if traveling!

Widespread subzero wind chills Tuesday morning across the region. Tomorrow (Monday) morning will also have single-digit wind chills. Stay warm!

*** POST EXPIRED ***

Roads have become snow covered and slippery in spots. If traveling tonight, use caution and slow down. Be alert that sidewalks and parking lots may also be slippery.

It's been a slow start to the snow season here in Duluth. We've accumulated 2.5" of snow so far and this is 11.6" below normal through this evening. The least snowy start was in 2004 when only a trace of snow had fallen. I'm hoping for more snow, you?

Light snow is beginning to spread into eastern Iowa, and will continue to do so through 10 PM. Use caution if traveling in this area as roads become slick due to the snow and temperatures falling into the low 30s!

High probabilities the ground will be white for most southern Wisconsin locations just after sunrise on Sunday. Snowfall could become moderate at times along and south of Interstate 94 Sunday morning. Only light winds will accompany the snow. Stay tuned for further updates later tonight.

We've made some minor changes to the snowfall forecast ahead of our snow tonight and throughout Sunday.

The take away is we're still confident THAT MOST will likely pick up between 1-2" however, some folks may see isolated accumulations closer to 3".

4:51 AM 11/25/23: Light snow is expected at times later tonight into Sunday. Most locations should see an inch or two of snow which could impact the holiday travel on Sunday.

**OUTDATED POST**

Temperatures will remain seasonal through Monday. Some occasional flurries are possible Saturday, before a line of light snow showers is expected to move in on Sunday. Accumulations are expected to be low, so no snowmen yet unfortunately!

Our next round of snow is quickly approaching and looks to begin across the southwest starting late Saturday night/early Sunday morning.

The heaviest snow will fall during the morning hours on Sunday but lingering flurries can be expected through Sunday afternoon.

Most will likely accumulate between a trace to 1.5" of snow. However, folks farther southeast have a better chance of accumulating around 2".

There's been a slight shift north since the snowfall forecast this morning. Some data is also a little more aggressive with totals farther east, but we will have to see if that continues with the final snowfall forecast tomorrow (Friday) morning. This will be a fluffier type, with 11:1-13:1 ratio. This helps out with higher accumulation, even with limited liquid precipitation.

Look for the final snowfall forecast mid-morning Friday.

-Snowfall Forecast Friday-Sunday-

A winter storm will affect a large portion of the region starting Friday and lasting through Sunday. Impactful accumulations are expected, with significant travel impacts possible in portions of Nebraska and Kansas where 5-8" of snow is expected. A stubborn high pressure farther east will weaken the system, but 1-3" of snow is expected into IA/IL/WI/MO/MI, which will still impact travel, especially as most of the snow will fall after sunset Saturday night and before sunrise Sunday.

The final snowfall forecast will be posted tomorrow (Friday) morning!

First snow since Halloween!!

Thus run-to-run inconsistency, we are still watching a winter storm next Friday and Saturday for portions of the region. We are down to two possible solutions on the storm track, but the surface low will likely move into Kansas. After that is pretty uncertain, but confidence is higher in the storm track than the intensity. Deterministic guidance is all over the place, but ensemble data continues to hold a decent winter storm.

We will have a map out tomorrow showing the potential areas to see accumulating snowfall. Stay tuned for more updates!

: Thursday afternoon temps were well into the 50s to the mid 60s. This afternoon on Friday, readings are a good 20° to 25° lower, although it is less windy.

🦃🥶COLD TURKEY?!🥶🦃 Model guidance continues to suggest another potent temperature swing is on the horizon, just in time for Turkey Day! This showcases temperatures 10-15+ degrees colder than average across much of the eastern U.S.

As always, take model guidance 7+ days in advance with a large dollop of gravy, as the timing of the temperature flip becomes more fine tuned.

-Winter Storm Potential November 23-25-

Ensemble and deterministic guidance continue to show a second trough to move through around Thanksgiving. The cold air and overall moisture availability is there for a winter storm, or at least a strong system that will affect travel of some sort. This system will have a lot of cold air with it. We are too far out for more exact details, but it is something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

We will have another update Thursday!

🦃🥶COLD TURKEY?!🥶🦃 Model guidance along with long-range ensembles are indicating another temperature swing may be on the horizon, just in time for Turkey Day & Thanksgiving festivities. As always, take model guidance 7+ days in advance with a large dollop of gravy, as the pattern becomes more fine tuned.

-30 Day Storm Cycle Trough = Major Pattern Change-

A strong trough around the 30-day storm cycle will likely allow for a major pattern change for Thanksgiving week. The trough will impact us around the 19-20th timeframe. This will allow for an active and much colder pattern for Thanksgiving week and likely longer.

We will have an update on this trough (potential impacts) tomorrow. Stay tuned!