USC Lusk Center for Real Estate

This Thursday 4/18, Lusk Director Richard K. Green joins a panel discussing the long view of the real estate market and how it impacts today.

Hosted by the USC Alumni Real Estate Network.

Registration: https://tinyurl.com/ARENPanel24

Miss registering for the Executive Forum?

April 14 is the last day to RSVP online. If you missed the deadline, on-site registration opens April 16 at 4:30 pm.

Program:

🤝 Networking Reception

📊 Economic Outlook - Richard K. Green | USC Lusk Center for Real Estate

🍊 Panel - Orange County State of the Market
Gino A. Canori | Related California
John C. Condas | Allen Matkins Leck Gamble Mallory & Natsis, LLP
Collin Phillips | Prologis
Kory Kramer | Eagle Four Partners
Moderator: John Loper | USC Sol Price School of Public Policy

A special thank you to Allen Matkins for making this forum possible

Walk-in registration information: https://cvent.me/LXBvrE

Today is the day to register for next week’s Orange County Executive Forum!

For today only, registration is reduced from $265 to $199.

Enter Discount Code FLASH24OC at checkout.

Please tag and share with anyone you know who may be considering the event. They may thank you for keeping them in the know!

This offer closes at 11:59pm tonight (Friday, 4/12).

See you on April 16th!

Registration: https://cvent.me/LXBvrE

What’s the state of the real estate market in Orange County?

On April 16, industry leaders are convening to discuss trends and challenges affecting the region including industrial real estate trends, regulatory tides, affordable housing, financing urban development, and more.

Panel:

Gino A. Canori | Related California
John C. Condas | Allen Matkins
Collin Phillips | Prologis
Kory Kramer | Eagle Four Partners
Moderator: John Loper | USC Sol Price School of Public Policy

Join us for an evening of networking and an informative program featuring Southern California real estate leaders sharing insights and an economic outlook for the region.

A special thank you to Allen Matkins for making this event possible.

➡️ Online Registration closes April 14

Learn more: https://web.cvent.com/event/98dc2de0-5494-49b8-9b3c-e95aca789e1d/summary

This week we had the privilege of hosting Gilles Duranton from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in our research seminar series!

Professor Duranton presented a version of his paper “Urbanisation and urban divergence: France 1760 - 2020”.

Coauthors:
Pierre-Philippe Combes | Sciences Po
Laurent Gobillon | Paris School of Economics
Clément Gorin | University of Paris 1
Frédéric Robert-Nicoud | University of Geneva

Lusk Director Richard K. Green was quoted in a recent Los Angeles Times piece on the shortage of building in the state and its likely consequences.

More from the article:
"During the first two months of this year, builders in California pulled 35% more permits for single-family homes than during the same period a year earlier, according to census data.

Permits for multifamily continued to decline — dropping 33%.”

Read the full article: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-04-02/california-is-building-fewer-homes-the-state-could-get-even-more-expensive

With interest rates holding at their highest in over 20 years, how will Orange County fare?

On April 16, Lusk Director Richard K. Green unpacks the county’s prospects in context with national and regional economic conditions.

Join us for an evening of networking and an informative program featuring Southern California real estate leaders sharing insights on the state of the industry and Orange County Markets.

Program:

📊 Economic Outlook - Richard K. Green | USC Lusk Center for Real Estate

🍊 Panel - Orange County State of the Market
Gino A. Canori | Related California
John C. Condas | Allen Matkins Leck Gamble Mallory & Natsis, LLP
Megan Creecy-Herman | Prologis
Kory Kramer | Eagle Four Partners
Moderator: John Loper | USC Sol Price School of Public Policy

➡️ Online Registration closes April 14

A special thank you to Allen Matkins for making this event possible.

Learn more:
https://web.cvent.com/event/98dc2de0-5494-49b8-9b3c-e95aca789e1d/summary

Construction slowdowns, high interest rates, reduced office demand—how are these national trends and more impacting Orange County?

On April 16th, the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate is excited to host an Orange County Executive Forum at the Resort at Pelican Hill.

Join us for an evening of networking and an informative program featuring Southern California real estate leaders sharing insights on the state of the industry and Orange County Markets.

Program:

📊 Economic Outlook - Richard K. Green | USC Lusk Center for Real Estate

🍊 Panel - Orange County State of the Market
Gino A. Canori | Related California
John C. Condas | Allen Matkins Leck Gamble Mallory & Natsis, LLP
Megan Creecy-Herman | Prologis
Kory Kramer | Eagle Four Partners
Moderator: John Loper | USC Sol Price School of Public Policy

➡️ Online Registration closes April 14

A special thank you to Allen Matkins for making this event possible.

Learn more: https://web.cvent.com/event/98dc2de0-5494-49b8-9b3c-e95aca789e1d/summary

This week we were honored to host Ingrid Gould Ellen from NYU Wagner and NYU Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy in our research seminar series!

Professor Ellen presented the latest version of her paper “The Bronx is Burning: Urban Disinvestment Effects of the Fair Access to Insurance Requirements.”

Coauthors:
Daniel A. Hartley | Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Jeffrey Lin | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Wei You | Peking University

Mark your calendars for April 16th! 🗓️

The USC Lusk Center for Real Estate is excited to host an Orange County Executive Forum at the Resort at Pelican Hill.

Join us for an evening of networking and an informative program featuring Southern California real estate leaders sharing insights on the state of the industry and Orange County Markets.

Program:
📊 Economic Outlook - Richard K. Green | USC Lusk Center for Real Estate

🍊 Panel - Orange County State of the Market
Gino A. Canori | Related California
John C. Condas | Allen Matkins Leck Gamble Mallory & Natsis, LLP
Megan Creecy-Herman | Prologis
Kory Kramer | Eagle Four Partners
Moderator: John Loper | USC Sol Price School of Public Policy

➡️ Early bird registration closes soon - Tuesday, March 26

A special thank you to Allen Matkins for making this forum possible.

Learn more: https://web.cvent.com/event/98dc2de0-5494-49b8-9b3c-e95aca789e1d/summary

How will the US economy perform in 2024?

Claudia Sahm (Sahm Consulting) joins Lusk Director Richard K. Green to discuss the US economy’s recovery from COVID alongside additional shocks and infer the implications of the Federal Reserve’s playbook for 2024.

Sahm’s key points:

↩️ The US economy undeniably turned a corner in 2023

🌎 The US recovery remains stronger than its peer countries

✂️ The Federal Reserve will continue its conservative approach to rate cuts

🤚 The greatest risk to the market in the near future is the Federal Reserve’s sluggish response

Sahm also fields questions on the risk that commercial real estate and regional bank distress poses to the economy, the Federal Reserve’s limits on impacting housing affordability, and more.

Watch or listen now: https://lusk.usc.edu/events/2024-or-bust-economy-fed-and-fiscal-policy

This week we were delighted to host Ben Hyman from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in our research seminar series!

Hyman presented the latest version of his paper “Firm responses to state hiring subsidies: Regression discontinuity evidence from a tax credit formula.”

Coauthors:
Matthew Freedman | UC Irvine
Shantanu Khanna | Northeastern University
David Neumark | UC Irvine

It's been four years since the last in-person Industry Night, and last week's event solidified the importance of this forum to the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, the Smith Department of Real Estate Development, and the real estate community.

We’re so grateful for the industry professionals who took time out of their busy schedules to share expertise and insights with our students.

A special thank you to our keynote speaker Wilbur H. Smith III of Greenlaw Partners who delivered an openhanded look into his career’s ups and downs as well as vital tips to staying relevant in today’s shifting marketplace.

Fight on! ✌️

This week we had the honor of hosting Gregor Schubert from the UCLA Anderson School of Management in our research seminar series!

Professor Schubert presented a version of his paper “When Money Moves In: The Consequences of Housing Wealth”

Co-authors:
Darren Aiello | BYU
Jason Kotter | BYU

There's a regional construction slowdown. Historically high interest rates, rising operating costs, and changes to financing contribute to decline. Now what?

The Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast covers the upcoming two years for SoCal.

The headline: Slow Growth, Less Housing
Rent growth stays moderate for now, but with construction slowdowns and a tidal wave of refinancing coming, the housing supply will become further constrained.

Markets covered:
🌆 Los Angeles County
🍊 Orange County
➡️ Inland Empire
🌊 San Diego County
☀️ Ventura County

The report provides a detailed look at vacancy rates, rents, net migration, and more at the region's market and submarket level.

Full report: https://lusk.usc.edu/2023-casden-multifamily-forecast-report

“Only the United States has such an extreme system of winners and losers, in which new buyers face borrowing costs of 7.5 percent or more while two-thirds of existing mortgage holders pay less than 4 percent.

On a $400,000 home, that’s a difference of $1,000 in monthly housing costs.”

Lusk Director Richard K. Green was quoted in a recent article in The New York Times on one of the most unique aspects of the housing market in the United States: the 30-year mortgage.

Article: “A 30-Year Trap: The Problem With America’s Weird Mortgages” from Ben Casselman.

Who will bring home the silver shovel?

This Thursday, November 16th USC is hosting the 2023 LA Real Estate Challenge with NAIOP SoCal Chapter and NAIOP.

For the 26th year, NAIOP SoCal’s LA Real Estate Challenge will pit a five-member graduate student team from UCLA and USC as they compete head-to-head in a real estate challenge on the highest and best use for a proposed site.

The site chosen for the 2023 challenge is the Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Tustin South Hangar, which is within the remaining 565 undeveloped acres of the former MCAS Tustin.

May the best team win! Register at the link in the comments.

More: https://members.naiopsocal.org/ap/Events/Register/bLqg8bgp

If you won't be able to attend, please share this post or comment with a little support for this year's team! Fight On! ✌️

When Matthew E. Kahn discusses climate change, you’re almost guaranteed to both agree and disagree with his remarks.

Causes and mitigations aside, the effects of climate change have significant implications for real estate. It affects property values, investment decisions, and the way projects are planned and developed.

Some relevant questions:

- How much should a homebuyer know about a property’s elevated flood risk?
- Could hybrid and work-from-home arrangements mean hotter regions experience seasonal influx?
- Will investors lean into riskier properties with reduced valuations?

On November 15, Kahn will discuss challenges and opportunities in commercial real estate going forward.

Registration:
https://lusk.usc.edu/casden/multifamily/conference

This week we had the honor of hosting Luis Lopez from University of Illinois Chicago in our research seminar series!

Professor Lopez presented a version of his paper “Redlining and Realtor Associations”.

Co-authors:
Yuliya Demyanyk | University of Illinois at Chicago
Nitzan Tzur-Ilan | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

This week we were honored to host J. Vernon Henderson from London School of Economics at our research seminar series!

Professor Henderson presented a version of his paper “Evaluating Urban Planning: Evidence from Dar es Salaam”

From the Abstract:
“Urban informality, which is prevalent in Africa’s rapidly growing cities, can reduce private investments, lower tax bases, and exacerbate urban disamenities.

A key policy tool to address this problem is greenfield urban planning where governments purchase cheap agricultural land on the urban fringe and partition it into planned, surveyed, and titled de novo plots, which people can purchase and build houses on.

This paper studies the consequences of the planned layout of Tanzania’s ‘20,000 plot’ project, which provided over 36,000 residential plots in 12 project areas on the fringes of Dar es Salaam in the early 2000s.”

Co-authors:
Francisco Libano-Monteiro | LSE
Martina Manara | Sheffield
Guy Michaels | LSE
Tanner Regan | GWU

Our multifamily forecast numbers are not above scrutiny.

Each year, the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast Report details market conditions in each of Southern California’s dynamic regions while projecting rents, vacancies, net delivered units, and more.

But do the numbers resonate with multifamily practitioners?

That’s why at every Casden Multifamily Conference, industry leaders offer their take on the report’s findings. It’s a temperature check on the forecast and a look at what today’s professionals see in the pipeline.

This year, Lusk Director Richard K. Green moderates the response panel where rigorous data meets real-world expertise. Given the current state of the market, it’s shaping up to be a lively discussion.

You don’t want to miss it! Join us on November 15th at Conrad Los Angeles.

Register now: https://lusk.usc.edu/casden/multifamily/conference

New multifamily construction has been awfully quiet lately.

With changes in interest rates and financing, construction is slowing across a region with an already constrained housing supply.

What’s next for Southern California?

On November 15th, Moussa Diop (USC Price) puts the region's challenges in context with national economic trends and delivers highlights from this year’s Casden Multifamily Forecast Report.

Registration: https://lusk.usc.edu/casden/multifamily/conference

“Distinguished trailblazer” isn’t a term used lightly.

With 42 years of real estate experience, Daryl J. Carter (Avanth Capital Management) more than fits the bill.

On November 15th, Mr. Carter will share insights from his storied career delivering missing middle housing and fostering community.

As an industry leader, Mr. Carter has received numerous accolades, including induction into the Multifamily Executive Hall of Fame in 2022.⁣

Avanath Capital Management, LLC is a California-based investment firm that acquires, renovates, and operates apartment properties with an emphasis on affordable and workforce communities. Mr. Carter directs the overall strategy and operations of the Company. Since its formation in 2008, Avanath has acquired $4 billion of properties in 15 states in the U.S., comprising 16,000 apartment units.

Read his full bio and register for the conference:
https://lusk.usc.edu/casden/multifamily/speakers

Thank you to this year’s generous sponsors for making this event possible:
Related California
Hutton Companies
Heffernan Insurance Brokers

Interest rates are slowing multifamily housing production significantly.
This year, Southern California saw its first tropical storm in 84 years.
The looming recession isn’t happening…or it's still pending.

Now what?

Industry leaders and academic researchers are gathering at the Casden Multifamily Conference to discuss this question and much more.

What kinds of projects are moving forward? What opportunities and pitfalls lay ahead? What will multifamily look like in the coming 24 months?

Join us on November 15th at Conrad Los Angeles for a look at what’s next for Southern California.

Thank you to this year’s generous sponsors for making this event possible:
Related California
Hutton Companies
Heffernan Insurance Brokers

Full program and more: https://lusk.usc.edu/casden/multifamily/conference

Are you heading to ICSC in San Diego?

Stop by booth 1047 and say hi 👋 to program manager Mary Peralta! She will be on-site representing the USC Ross Program in Real Estate.

Ross Alumni, don't forget to check in with Mary to pick up your Ross badge ribbon and pin! Bring a colleague!

Image description:
Flyer. Background photo of downtown San Diego. Flyer text reads ICSC @ Western. We're exhibiting October 25-27, 2023. San Diego Convention Center. San Diego, CA. ICSC.com

We’re looking back at last year’s Casden Multifamily Forecast Conference and getting excited for November 15th!

☕️ Join us for a morning discussing SoCal’s multifamily fundamentals, global-to-local economic outlook, and more!

Registrants will also receive a digital download of the Casden Multifamily Forecast Report, a comprehensive summary of market conditions in each of SoCal’s dynamic regions along with forecasted rents, vacancies, net delivered units, and more at the submarket level.

Thank you to this year’s generous sponsors for making this event possible:
Related California
Hutton Companies
Heffernan Insurance

Learn more: https://lusk.usc.edu/casden/multifamily/conference

Image Descriptions:
1-Photo: Selma Hepp, a White woman with shoulder-length blonde hair, smiles as she stands at a lecture podium. She is wearing thick-rimmed black glasses and a black blouse.

2-Photo: Three men, two Asian and one White, chat and laugh with one other holding coffee cups during a networking session. All three are wearing business attire with blazers, button-up shirt, and no tie.

3-Photo: Three Black women standing at a tall table smile for a photo. They are all wearing black, gray or white-toned business attire.

4-Photo: Three attendees speak to one another in the conference ballroom. On the left is a White man with a sky-blue suit, in the middle is an Asian woman in a black dress holding a coffee cup. They are both looking at the White woman on the right, who is speaking to the man on the left. She is wearing a gray dress coat and holding a large orange folder.

5-Photo: A seated crowd faces the stage out of frame. Two participants stand in the background near the entrance door.

This week we were honored to host Jack Liebersohn from the University of California, Irvine at our research seminar series!

Professor Liebersohn presented an early version of his paper “Household Mobility and Mortgage Lock”.

Liebersohn’s research seeks to determine how interest rate changes in the past few years have influenced mobility. Homeowners of course are likely to be affected, but how much? What about renters? Lots of great back and forth regarding the paper’s finer points. Looking forward to seeing how this work develops.

Co-author: Jesse Rothstein UC Berkeley

It was a pleasure hosting Michael Reher (UCSD) this week at our research seminar series!

Professor Reher presented the most recent version of “Real Effects of Rollover Risk: Evidence from Hotels in Crisis”

From the abstract:
“We show that when commercial real estate debt is scheduled to mature during a crisis, it can generate a deterioration in real outcomes at the properties collateralizing the debt.

Focusing on the hotel industry during the COVID-19 pandemic, we compare hotels with loans maturing during the pandemic to those with loans maturing just before.”

Co-authors:
Anthony A. DeFusco - University of Wisconsin–Madison
Charles G. Nathanson - Northwestern University

Lusk Director Richard K. Green was interviewed for Marketplace on NYC’s new Airbnb crackdown.

With or without a reduction in short-term rentals, NYC and many other metros suffer from a drastic housing shortage.

Image description: black quote box overlaying the New York City skyline. White and yellow text reads “While short-term rentals contribute to the affordability problem in some places, Green added that the bigger issue is there just isn’t enough housing. Period.”

Listen or read here: https://www.marketplace.org/2023/08/24/new-york-city-airbnb-crackdown-affordable-housing/

🗣 Announcing an exciting addition to the Lusk Center!

The Neighborhood Data for Social Change (NDSC) is pleased to announce that it is now housed within the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate at the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy and USC Marshall School of Business.

Since its inception over six years ago, NDSC has built out a significant portfolio of mapping projects in housing, real estate, and more.

📚 NDSC is a free resource to learn about the trends, challenges, and opportunities facing Los Angeles County neighborhoods.

The platform helps tell the stories of L.A. neighborhoods through maps, charts, data analysis, and storytelling.

Its data equips community stakeholders to track measurable change, improve local policies and programs, and ultimately advocate for a better quality of life within their communities.

🤝 Please join us in welcoming the NDSC team to Lusk!